Based on the mocks updated within the past four days, 11 of the 12 mock drafts in our database have a pitcher going first overall. Seven of those 11 have it being Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray and four of them have Stanford's Mark Appel going first overall.
The one exception is Anthony Witrado of The Sporting News, who has the Astros selecting North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.
If the majority of mocks are correct and it's a pitcher that goes first overall, the success rate of pitchers selected first overall has not been great.
Here's a chart from Baseball Reference of pitchers selected No. 1 overall in the MLB Draft since 1970:
Year | Rnd | RdPck | Tm | Pos | WAR | G | W | L | SV | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 1 | 1 | Pirates | Gerrit Cole (minors) | RHP | |||||||
2009 | 1 | 1 | Nationals | Stephen Strasburg (minors) | RHP | 7.0 | 57 | 24 | 15 | 2.85 | 1.08 | 0 |
2007 | 1 | 1 | Devil Rays | David Price (minors) | LHP | 15.1 | 134 | 62 | 35 | 3.29 | 1.19 | 0 |
2006 | 1 | 1 | Royals | Luke Hochevar (minors) | RHP | 0.8 | 148 | 38 | 60 | 5.33 | 1.39 | 1 |
2002 | 1 | 1 | Pirates | Bryan Bullington (minors) | RHP | -0.2 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 5.62 | 1.58 | 0 |
1997 | 1 | 1 | Tigers | Matt Anderson (minors) | RHP | -0.5 | 257 | 15 | 7 | 5.19 | 1.58 | 26 |
1996 | 1 | 1 | Pirates | Kris Benson (minors) | RHP | 13.0 | 206 | 70 | 75 | 4.42 | 1.39 | 0 |
1994 | 1 | 1 | Mets | Paul Wilson (minors) | RHP | 2.2 | 170 | 40 | 58 | 4.86 | 1.45 | 0 |
1991 | 1 | 1 | Yankees | Brien Taylor (minors) | LHP | |||||||
1989 | 1 | 1 | Orioles | Ben McDonald (minors) | RHP | 20.9 | 211 | 78 | 70 | 3.91 | 1.26 | 0 |
1988 | 1 | 1 | Padres | Andy Benes (minors) | RHP | 31.7 | 403 | 155 | 139 | 3.97 | 1.31 | 1 |
1983 | 1 | 1 | Twins | Tim Belcher (minors) | RHP | 26.2 | 394 | 146 | 140 | 4.16 | 1.34 | 5 |
1981 | 1 | 1 | Mariners | Mike Moore (minors) | RHP | 28.5 | 450 | 161 | 176 | 4.39 | 1.42 | 2 |
1976 | 1 | 1 | Astros | Floyd Bannister (minors) | LHP | 26.9 | 431 | 134 | 143 | 4.06 | 1.33 | 0 |
1973 | 1 | 1 | Rangers | David Clyde (minors) | LHP | 0.7 | 84 | 18 | 33 | 4.63 | 1.53 | 0 |
Again, you can view our updated mock draft database here.
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