In the ultimate slap in the face to Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox are in the World Series, only a year removed winning 69 games. They'll square off against the Cardinals starting this Wednesday, and I don't see how you can bet against them.
Boston has been the most consistent team all year. They hit pretty well at every position, have a good to great top-four starting pitchers, and with Craig Breslow and Koji Uehara, the game might as well be seven innings, as both pitchers have been virtually unhittable.
The Sox made a habit of getting no-hit for about five innings/game against Detroit, but still found a way to win the Series in six games. They got shut down against Max Scherzer twice, but the bullpen gave up a grand slam in each game, and Boston won both games. They also managed only one run against Justin Verlander, who was brilliant in the postseason, and won the game 1-0. I just don't see how you combat that kind of timely hitting and never-say-die momentum that they have been carrying through the playoffs.
The Cardinals have been impressive as well. They have also had some timely hitting, and were able to avoid a collapse after holding a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers, the way they did last year against the Giants. If not for the emergence of Michael Wacha, I would be even more confident in the Red Sox to win it all, but Wacha has been even better than Adam Wainwright in the playoffs, and deservedly won the NLCS MVP.
If Wacha can continue his recent success, then the Cardinals will have a good chance to win the four games they'll need to win with Wainwright and Wacha each likely to start two if the series goes long enough.
I think these teams are similar, with the Cards having a little bit better starting pitching at the top, and the Red Sox having a little more depth to the rotation. In tight games, though, you have to have a good bullpen to either stop the bleeding or to cling to a small lead, and the Red Sox have found a winning combination there.
As a Yankees fan, I will be rooting for the Cardinals to win it all, but I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong, but objectively, I'll give the nod to the Sox to win the series 4-2.
[Editor's note: This post is by John Trifone (@JohnnyT0122), who also contributes at our NFL site: Eat, Drink and Sleep Football (see John's archives).]
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 20 Second Basemen
Not only is he a talented and consistently productive player, but New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is both of those things at a fantasy position relatively scarce of such players.
As an example, the 12th-best batting average among qualified second basemen last year was .259. Only five of them had 20-plus home runs and six had more than 75 runs batted in.
While the position is a decent source of stolen bases, many of the top base-stealers at the position either had a low batting average or little power production (or both). Seven second basemen stole 20-plus bases and only one of that group hit .260-plus with double-digit home runs: Boston's Dustin Pedroia.
With the exception of stolen bases, Cano is elite in all four other categories of standard 5x5 rotisserie leagues. Stealing just three bases in 2012, Cano actually stole eight bases in 2011. If he steals close to that number again, just consider it gravy.
Last year, Cano hit .313 with 33 home runs and 94 runs batted in, all of which led second basemen. In addition, he scored 105 runs, which tied him with Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers.
Going forward, he remains a lock to be the leader or very close to the leader in those four categories at the position.
Over the past four seasons, Cano has the following minimums: .302 average, 25 home runs, 103 runs scored and 85 runs batted in. When it comes to power numbers, those four-year lows actually occurred four seasons ago. He has averaged exactly 30 home runs and 107 runs batted in the past three seasons.
As a career .308 hitter, Cano has had only two seasons below .300: .297 (2005) and .271 (2008). Looking at his pre- and post-All Star splits since 2009, however, he never hit below .296 in any of those eight splits. Not only is he consistent year after year, but he is also consistent within the year.
Last but certainly not least, Cano is durable. Over the past six years, he has never missed more than three games in any season and has missed a total of only 12 games during that span.
At a position with many question marks, Cano is the surest of sure things.
Phillips: A Lock for 18-15 (or Better)?
Although it was six seasons ago, Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has a 30-30 season under his belt. While he's been a consistent source of both home runs and stolen bases, you should expect about half those numbers in 2013.
Since 2006, Phillips is only one stolen base (in 2011) shy of having seven consecutive seasons of 15-plus home runs and 15-plus stolen bases. After three straight 20-20 seasons (including the 30-30 season) from 2007 to 2009, Phillips has failed to reach 20 of either in the past three seasons.
From 2010 to 2012, he has hit exactly 18 home runs each year and has stolen 16, 14 and 15 bases, respectively, during that timeframe as well. Phillips is a solid five-category contributor at the position with a three-year average line of .285/93/18/73/15.
While he has held relatively steady in stolen bases, his number of attempted swipes has continued to drop. Over the past four years, here are his number of attempted steals: 34 (2009), 28 (2010), 23 (2011) and 17 (2012).
Can Utley Stay Healthy For a Full Season?
From 2005 to 2009, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley was as good as it gets at second base. During that five-year stretch, he hit .301 and averaged 111 runs scored, 29 home runs, 101 runs batted in and 15 stolen bases.
Since then, however, he's been a shell of his former self.
Utley has played in a total of 301 games over the past three seasons with those numbers dropping each season: 115 (2010), 103 (2011) and 83 (2012).
Now that he's healthy (or at least healthier) and participating in spring training games for the first time since 2010, Utley should give fantasy owners (much) more in 2013 than he has recently.
While owners should not expect numbers close to the 2005-2009 range, it's possible that he comes close to a 20-15 season if things go well.
Here are my second basemen rankings for the 2013 fantasy baseball season (based on Yahoo! eligibility):
1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
5. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
6. Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
7. Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves
10. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
11. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
13. Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Josh Rutledge, Colorado Rockies
15. Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals
16. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
17. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
18. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners
19. Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants
20. Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers
For a second opinion, check out Duncan Sanford's second basemen rankings. (Or view our consensus second basemen rankings here.)
Other positions: C - 1B - 2B - 3B - SS - OF - SP - RP
To keep track of our updates, follow us on Twitter @EDSBaseball, LIKE us on Facebook and/or add us to your Google+ circle.
As an example, the 12th-best batting average among qualified second basemen last year was .259. Only five of them had 20-plus home runs and six had more than 75 runs batted in.
While the position is a decent source of stolen bases, many of the top base-stealers at the position either had a low batting average or little power production (or both). Seven second basemen stole 20-plus bases and only one of that group hit .260-plus with double-digit home runs: Boston's Dustin Pedroia.
With the exception of stolen bases, Cano is elite in all four other categories of standard 5x5 rotisserie leagues. Stealing just three bases in 2012, Cano actually stole eight bases in 2011. If he steals close to that number again, just consider it gravy.
Last year, Cano hit .313 with 33 home runs and 94 runs batted in, all of which led second basemen. In addition, he scored 105 runs, which tied him with Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers.
Going forward, he remains a lock to be the leader or very close to the leader in those four categories at the position.
Over the past four seasons, Cano has the following minimums: .302 average, 25 home runs, 103 runs scored and 85 runs batted in. When it comes to power numbers, those four-year lows actually occurred four seasons ago. He has averaged exactly 30 home runs and 107 runs batted in the past three seasons.
As a career .308 hitter, Cano has had only two seasons below .300: .297 (2005) and .271 (2008). Looking at his pre- and post-All Star splits since 2009, however, he never hit below .296 in any of those eight splits. Not only is he consistent year after year, but he is also consistent within the year.
Last but certainly not least, Cano is durable. Over the past six years, he has never missed more than three games in any season and has missed a total of only 12 games during that span.
At a position with many question marks, Cano is the surest of sure things.
Phillips: A Lock for 18-15 (or Better)?
Although it was six seasons ago, Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has a 30-30 season under his belt. While he's been a consistent source of both home runs and stolen bases, you should expect about half those numbers in 2013.
Since 2006, Phillips is only one stolen base (in 2011) shy of having seven consecutive seasons of 15-plus home runs and 15-plus stolen bases. After three straight 20-20 seasons (including the 30-30 season) from 2007 to 2009, Phillips has failed to reach 20 of either in the past three seasons.
From 2010 to 2012, he has hit exactly 18 home runs each year and has stolen 16, 14 and 15 bases, respectively, during that timeframe as well. Phillips is a solid five-category contributor at the position with a three-year average line of .285/93/18/73/15.
While he has held relatively steady in stolen bases, his number of attempted swipes has continued to drop. Over the past four years, here are his number of attempted steals: 34 (2009), 28 (2010), 23 (2011) and 17 (2012).
Can Utley Stay Healthy For a Full Season?
From 2005 to 2009, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley was as good as it gets at second base. During that five-year stretch, he hit .301 and averaged 111 runs scored, 29 home runs, 101 runs batted in and 15 stolen bases.
Since then, however, he's been a shell of his former self.
Utley has played in a total of 301 games over the past three seasons with those numbers dropping each season: 115 (2010), 103 (2011) and 83 (2012).
Now that he's healthy (or at least healthier) and participating in spring training games for the first time since 2010, Utley should give fantasy owners (much) more in 2013 than he has recently.
While owners should not expect numbers close to the 2005-2009 range, it's possible that he comes close to a 20-15 season if things go well.
Here are my second basemen rankings for the 2013 fantasy baseball season (based on Yahoo! eligibility):
1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
5. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
6. Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
7. Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves
10. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
11. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
13. Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Josh Rutledge, Colorado Rockies
15. Danny Espinosa, Washington Nationals
16. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
17. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
18. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners
19. Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants
20. Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers
For a second opinion, check out Duncan Sanford's second basemen rankings. (Or view our consensus second basemen rankings here.)
Other positions: C - 1B - 2B - 3B - SS - OF - SP - RP
To keep track of our updates, follow us on Twitter @EDSBaseball, LIKE us on Facebook and/or add us to your Google+ circle.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Jacoby Ellsbury placed on 15-day DL
As expected, the Boston Red Sox placed center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury on the 15-day disabled list due to his subluxed shoulder.
"Jacoby injured his right shoulder during yesterday’s game," per a team statement (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). "An MRI was performed and showed findings consistent with a subluxed shoulder. We are in the process of gathering further information and determining the treatment plan. Jacoby will be placed on the 15-day disabled list prior to today’s game."
The team is expected to call up Jason Repko from Pawtucket to take Ellsbury's roster spot.
Through seven games, Ellsbury was hitting .192 with no home runs and no stolen bases. He has four runs scored and three runs batted in.
"Jacoby injured his right shoulder during yesterday’s game," per a team statement (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). "An MRI was performed and showed findings consistent with a subluxed shoulder. We are in the process of gathering further information and determining the treatment plan. Jacoby will be placed on the 15-day disabled list prior to today’s game."
The team is expected to call up Jason Repko from Pawtucket to take Ellsbury's roster spot.
Through seven games, Ellsbury was hitting .192 with no home runs and no stolen bases. He has four runs scored and three runs batted in.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Andrew Bailey out through the All-Star Break
Per Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey will have surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right thumb.
The injury will keep Bailey on the disabled list until after the All-Star break, according to manager Bobby Valentine.
As far as which reliever will take over ninth-inning duties, the top candidates are Mark Melancon and Alfredo Aceves.
Melancon and Aceves are currently owned in 39 and 21 percent, respectively, of Yahoo! leagues.
Get our updated 2012 reliever rankings here.
The injury will keep Bailey on the disabled list until after the All-Star break, according to manager Bobby Valentine.
As far as which reliever will take over ninth-inning duties, the top candidates are Mark Melancon and Alfredo Aceves.
Melancon and Aceves are currently owned in 39 and 21 percent, respectively, of Yahoo! leagues.
Get our updated 2012 reliever rankings here.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Red Sox place Carl Crawford on 15-day DL
The Boston Red Sox have placed left fielder Carl Crawford on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring, per ESPN Boston.
"I think the medical people thought at best it was going to be 10 to 14 days [recovery time],'' [manager Terry] Francona said of Crawford, who was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain, the least severe. "I called him and talked to him this morning, he gets it.”
To take Crawford's roster spot, the Red Sox have recalled outfielder Josh Reddick from Triple-A.
This will be the second stint with the Red Sox this season for Reddick, who had five hits in 13 at-bats and four runs batted in during his first stint.
After getting off to a horrible start (.155, one home run and six RBIs in April), Crawford was hitting .295 with five homers and 25 RBIs in May and June.
On the season, Crawford is hitting .243 with six home runs, 31 RBIs and eight stolen bases.
"I think the medical people thought at best it was going to be 10 to 14 days [recovery time],'' [manager Terry] Francona said of Crawford, who was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain, the least severe. "I called him and talked to him this morning, he gets it.”
To take Crawford's roster spot, the Red Sox have recalled outfielder Josh Reddick from Triple-A.
This will be the second stint with the Red Sox this season for Reddick, who had five hits in 13 at-bats and four runs batted in during his first stint.
After getting off to a horrible start (.155, one home run and six RBIs in April), Crawford was hitting .295 with five homers and 25 RBIs in May and June.
On the season, Crawford is hitting .243 with six home runs, 31 RBIs and eight stolen bases.
Friday, April 22, 2011
X-rays on Kevin Youkilis came back negative
After fouling a ball of off his shin, Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis left yesterday's game in the second inning.
Per the Boston Herald, the X-rays came back negative, which rules out a fracture. However, manager Terry Francona describes Youkilis as being "pretty sore."
Youkilis, who is off to a slow start this season, is hitting only .214 with three home runs and eight runs batted in through 18 games.
That said, he's had two multi-hit games in his past four games played and 14 at-bats.
The Red Sox, who won only two of their first 12 games, have won five of their past six games.
Per the Boston Herald, the X-rays came back negative, which rules out a fracture. However, manager Terry Francona describes Youkilis as being "pretty sore."
Youkilis, who is off to a slow start this season, is hitting only .214 with three home runs and eight runs batted in through 18 games.
That said, he's had two multi-hit games in his past four games played and 14 at-bats.
The Red Sox, who won only two of their first 12 games, have won five of their past six games.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox finalize seven-year contract extension
It's official.
The Red Sox and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez have completed a seven-year contract extension worth $154 million, per Ian Browne of MLB.com.
The extension, which is the second-largest in team history, keeps Gonzalez, who was due to enter free agency after the 2011 season, in Boston through the 2018 season.
As Browne points out, there were two main reasons for waiting to announce the deal. First, it allowed the Red Sox to make sure there were no lingering effects from his off-season shoulder surgery. Second, the Red Sox saved $6.2 million in luxury tax by announcing the deal after the season started.
Gonzalez is off to a slow start -- .268 with one homer and seven runs batted in over 11 games.
With playing half of his games a park much more hitter-friendly than his previous home (Petco Park), however, Gonzalez should be in store for huge numbers year in and year out.
Here are his career splits:
The Red Sox and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez have completed a seven-year contract extension worth $154 million, per Ian Browne of MLB.com.
The extension, which is the second-largest in team history, keeps Gonzalez, who was due to enter free agency after the 2011 season, in Boston through the 2018 season.
As Browne points out, there were two main reasons for waiting to announce the deal. First, it allowed the Red Sox to make sure there were no lingering effects from his off-season shoulder surgery. Second, the Red Sox saved $6.2 million in luxury tax by announcing the deal after the season started.
Gonzalez is off to a slow start -- .268 with one homer and seven runs batted in over 11 games.
With playing half of his games a park much more hitter-friendly than his previous home (Petco Park), however, Gonzalez should be in store for huge numbers year in and year out.
Here are his career splits:
- Home: .263, 199 runs, 61 homers (140 extra-base hits), 216 RBIs in 431 games
- Away: .303, 294 runs, 108 homers (226 extra-base hits), 316 RBIs in 438 games
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox agree to four-year extension
The Boston Red Sox and starting pitcher Clay Buchholz have agreed on a four-year extension worth roughly $30 million.
Buchholz will earn $550,000 this year, the extension covers 2012 through 2015 and the Red Sox have club options for two additional years (2016 and 2017).
“That was just something that was important to the club,” Sox general manager Theo Epstein said, per Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “Obviously, we think very highly of Clay or we wouldn’t be doing this deal. With Clay being just 26 years old, the contract guarantees the salaries through the age of 30, and having two club option years helps us. We expect Clay to be pitching very well at that point and can still be here in his age 31, age 32 seasons. Just gives the club a little more flexibility in exchange for the security that we’re providing through the deal. It seems to make sense.”
Before the deal, Buchholz would have been eligible for free agency after the 2014 season.
Despite his rough start (0-2, 7.20 ERA) this year, Buchholz finished with a 17-7 record and the American League's second-best ERA (2.33) in 2010.
Buchholz will earn $550,000 this year, the extension covers 2012 through 2015 and the Red Sox have club options for two additional years (2016 and 2017).
“That was just something that was important to the club,” Sox general manager Theo Epstein said, per Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. “Obviously, we think very highly of Clay or we wouldn’t be doing this deal. With Clay being just 26 years old, the contract guarantees the salaries through the age of 30, and having two club option years helps us. We expect Clay to be pitching very well at that point and can still be here in his age 31, age 32 seasons. Just gives the club a little more flexibility in exchange for the security that we’re providing through the deal. It seems to make sense.”
Before the deal, Buchholz would have been eligible for free agency after the 2014 season.
Despite his rough start (0-2, 7.20 ERA) this year, Buchholz finished with a 17-7 record and the American League's second-best ERA (2.33) in 2010.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Carl Crawford dropped from 3rd to 7th in lineup today
Two games (and losses) into the season, the Boston Red Sox are making a notable adjustment to their lineup.
Left fielder Carl Crawford, who's 0-for-7 through two games, is moving from third to seventh in today's lineup for their game against the Rangers.
"Looking at him, he's obviously trying too hard," [Red Sox manager Terry] Francona said, per ESPNBoston.com. "As soon as he gets on base and creates havoc, he'll loosen up and the real Carl comes out."
Meanwhile, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who's 5-for-9 so far, and third baseman Kevin Youkilis will move up to the third and fourth spots in the batting order, respectively.
Of course, this is a temporary move. But too soon?
Left fielder Carl Crawford, who's 0-for-7 through two games, is moving from third to seventh in today's lineup for their game against the Rangers.
"Looking at him, he's obviously trying too hard," [Red Sox manager Terry] Francona said, per ESPNBoston.com. "As soon as he gets on base and creates havoc, he'll loosen up and the real Carl comes out."
Meanwhile, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who's 5-for-9 so far, and third baseman Kevin Youkilis will move up to the third and fourth spots in the batting order, respectively.
Of course, this is a temporary move. But too soon?
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Starting Pitcher Rankings
How early should you draft starting pitchers in fantasy baseball?
The answer you get to that question will probably vary quite a bit from person to person, but there is a fairly consistent strategy I've used in drafting my teams. Typically, I will look to add one elite pitcher, a top-five (or so) starter, within the first five rounds. After I draft my "ace," I will look to find one or two solid values in the 10-12 round range (or so) and then a few guys with lots of upside late in the draft.
Here are my top 40 starting pitchers for fantasy baseball in 2011:
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies: In the past three seasons, Halladay has posted sub-3.00 ERAs, struck out 200-plus batters and thrown nine complete games each season. During that span, Halladay has won 58 games, which doesn't include a post-season no-hitter in his first ever post-season start last year.
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants: Through four seasons, Lincecum has struck out 907 batters in 811 innings pitched. That's a career K/9 rate of 10.07. Lincecum, who's averaged 252.3 strikeouts per year over the past three seasons, is 248 away from tying Tom Seaver's record for most strikeouts in a pitcher's first five years during the modern era.
3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners: "King" Felix, who is more like a 2(a) in these rankings, won the A.L. Cy Young last year despite finishing with a 13-12 record due to poor run support. Hernandez struck out 232 batters and posted a 2.27 ERA in 249.2 innings last year.
4. Cliff Lee, Phillies: In 2010, Lee walked a total of 18 batters in 212.1 innings pitched, which was a league-best 0.76 walks per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Lee, who struck out 185 batters, led baseball in K/BB ratio (10.28) last year as well. In fact, Halladay, his new teammate, finished second in the category (7.30) while Jered Weaver finished third (4.31).
5. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Similar to Lincecum and Hernandez, Lester and Yankees' ace C.C. Sabathia are 5 and 5(a) in these rankings. In the past three seasons, Lester has posted an ERA under 3.50 each year while compiling a record of 50-23 during that span. In addition, he has struck out 450 batters in 411.1 innings over the past two seasons.
6. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: By limiting the Cap'n Crunch this off-season, Sabathia was able to shed 25 pounds. Regardless, Sabathia has a 40-15 record in his two seasons in the Bronx with ERAs of 3.37 and 3.18, respectively.
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers: With the exception of 2008 (11-17 and 4.84 ERA), Verlander has won 17-plus games with a sub-4.00 ERA every year since 2006. He has 488 strikeouts in the past two seasons and posted a career-best ERA of 3.37 in 2010.
8. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Kershaw, who just turned 23 years old earlier this month, has finished with a sub-3.00 ERA for two consecutive seasons in addition to setting career highs in wins (13) and strikeouts (212) last year. The sky's the limit for the former high school teammate of Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.
9. Tommy Hanson, Braves: Hanson, who is only 24 years old, has put up solid back-to-back seasons. In his first full season, Hanson struggled a bit in the first half last year, but he finished strong (2.51 ERA after the All-Star break).
10. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: While 2007 and 2008 were wiped out due to injury, Carpenter has finished with an ERA under 3.50 in his other five seasons with the Cardinals. In the past two seasons, Carpenter has compiled a record of 33-13 and finished with ERAs of 2.24 and 3.22, respectively.
11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies: In his first 14 starts last year, Jimenez allowed more than two earned runs only once (three earned runs vs. the Blue Jays on June 11th). Before the All-Star break, Jimenez won 15 of his 18 starts and posted an ERA of only 2.20. After the break, he finished with a record of 4-7 and 3.80 ERA. That said, he made year-over-year improvements in strikeouts, wins and ERA in the past two seasons.
12. Josh Johnson, Marlins: Johnson led all of baseball in home runs allowed per nine innings with a ratio of 0.34. Johnson only started 28 games, however, because he was shut down for the last month of the 2010 season. That said, he posted career bests in ERA (2.30), K/9 (9.11) and BB/9 (2.35).
13. Cole Hamels, Phillies: Hamels bounced back nicely in 2010 by posting a career high in strikeouts (211) and a career low in ERA (3.06). And he was even better after the All-Star break (2.23 ERA and 9.68 K/9) and in the post-season (1.20 ERA and 10.20 K/9).
14. Dan Haren, Angels: Haren actually had better splits after he was traded to the American League last year. In 14 starts with the Angels, Haren finished with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.16 (versus 4.60 and 1.35, respectively, with the Diamondbacks). That said, his K/9 rate dropped from 9.00 in Arizona to 7.18 with Los Angeles.
15. Francisco Liriano, Twins: Last year, Liriano bounced back with career highs in wins (14) and strikeouts (201). While switching to Target Field may not be a welcome move for the team's hitters, it helped Liriano set a career low in HR/9 of 0.42, which was the fourth lowest in baseball.
16. Jered Weaver, Angels: Last year, Weaver finished sixth in baseball in K/9 ratio (a career-high 9.35) among qualified leaders. Weaver also set career bests in innings (224.1), strikeouts (233), BB/9 ratio (2.17) and HR/9 ratio (0.92).
17. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: Gallardo, who turned 25 in February, has recorded 200-plus strikeouts and sub-4.00 ERAs in back-to-back seasons.
18. Roy Oswalt, Phillies: After Oswalt was acquired from the Astros, he was 7-1 with an ERA of 1.74 and WHIP of 0.90. While his peripherals were good before the trade (3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP), Oswalt was only 6-12 in 20 starts with Houston.
19. Matt Cain, Giants: Who was the "dark horse" candidate for N.L. Cy Young by Yahoo!'s Steve Henson? Considering where I'm asking this question, you surely know the answer (whether you or I agree with Henson or not). Despite having a career ERA of 3.45, however, Cain has an all-time record of 57-62 and has yet to win more than 14 games or strike out more than 186 batters in a season. In other words, I can see Cain finishing with about 15 wins, 180 strikeouts and and ERA of 3.25 (but no Cy Young).
20. Zack Greinke, Brewers: The good news is Greinke should have much better run support when he pitches in 2011 in addition to getting the opportunity to pitch to pitchers (and boost his strikeout rate). That said, we will have to wait to see that as Greinke, who will begin the season on the disabled list, might be out for all of April.
21. David Price, Rays
22. Mat Latos, Padres
23. Max Scherzer, Tigers
24. Brett Anderson, A's
25. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
26. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
27. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
28. Matt Garza, Cubs
29. Tim Hudson, Braves
30. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
31. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays
32. Gio Gonzalez, A's
33. Ted Lilly, Dodgers
34. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
35. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
36. Brett Myers, Astros
37. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
38. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
39. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
40. John Danks, White Sox
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our fantasy rankings for everyday players: C - 1B - 2B - SS - 3B - OF
The answer you get to that question will probably vary quite a bit from person to person, but there is a fairly consistent strategy I've used in drafting my teams. Typically, I will look to add one elite pitcher, a top-five (or so) starter, within the first five rounds. After I draft my "ace," I will look to find one or two solid values in the 10-12 round range (or so) and then a few guys with lots of upside late in the draft.
Here are my top 40 starting pitchers for fantasy baseball in 2011:
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies: In the past three seasons, Halladay has posted sub-3.00 ERAs, struck out 200-plus batters and thrown nine complete games each season. During that span, Halladay has won 58 games, which doesn't include a post-season no-hitter in his first ever post-season start last year.
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants: Through four seasons, Lincecum has struck out 907 batters in 811 innings pitched. That's a career K/9 rate of 10.07. Lincecum, who's averaged 252.3 strikeouts per year over the past three seasons, is 248 away from tying Tom Seaver's record for most strikeouts in a pitcher's first five years during the modern era.
3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners: "King" Felix, who is more like a 2(a) in these rankings, won the A.L. Cy Young last year despite finishing with a 13-12 record due to poor run support. Hernandez struck out 232 batters and posted a 2.27 ERA in 249.2 innings last year.
4. Cliff Lee, Phillies: In 2010, Lee walked a total of 18 batters in 212.1 innings pitched, which was a league-best 0.76 walks per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Lee, who struck out 185 batters, led baseball in K/BB ratio (10.28) last year as well. In fact, Halladay, his new teammate, finished second in the category (7.30) while Jered Weaver finished third (4.31).
5. Jon Lester, Red Sox: Similar to Lincecum and Hernandez, Lester and Yankees' ace C.C. Sabathia are 5 and 5(a) in these rankings. In the past three seasons, Lester has posted an ERA under 3.50 each year while compiling a record of 50-23 during that span. In addition, he has struck out 450 batters in 411.1 innings over the past two seasons.
6. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: By limiting the Cap'n Crunch this off-season, Sabathia was able to shed 25 pounds. Regardless, Sabathia has a 40-15 record in his two seasons in the Bronx with ERAs of 3.37 and 3.18, respectively.
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers: With the exception of 2008 (11-17 and 4.84 ERA), Verlander has won 17-plus games with a sub-4.00 ERA every year since 2006. He has 488 strikeouts in the past two seasons and posted a career-best ERA of 3.37 in 2010.
8. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Kershaw, who just turned 23 years old earlier this month, has finished with a sub-3.00 ERA for two consecutive seasons in addition to setting career highs in wins (13) and strikeouts (212) last year. The sky's the limit for the former high school teammate of Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford.
9. Tommy Hanson, Braves: Hanson, who is only 24 years old, has put up solid back-to-back seasons. In his first full season, Hanson struggled a bit in the first half last year, but he finished strong (2.51 ERA after the All-Star break).
10. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: While 2007 and 2008 were wiped out due to injury, Carpenter has finished with an ERA under 3.50 in his other five seasons with the Cardinals. In the past two seasons, Carpenter has compiled a record of 33-13 and finished with ERAs of 2.24 and 3.22, respectively.
11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies: In his first 14 starts last year, Jimenez allowed more than two earned runs only once (three earned runs vs. the Blue Jays on June 11th). Before the All-Star break, Jimenez won 15 of his 18 starts and posted an ERA of only 2.20. After the break, he finished with a record of 4-7 and 3.80 ERA. That said, he made year-over-year improvements in strikeouts, wins and ERA in the past two seasons.
12. Josh Johnson, Marlins: Johnson led all of baseball in home runs allowed per nine innings with a ratio of 0.34. Johnson only started 28 games, however, because he was shut down for the last month of the 2010 season. That said, he posted career bests in ERA (2.30), K/9 (9.11) and BB/9 (2.35).
13. Cole Hamels, Phillies: Hamels bounced back nicely in 2010 by posting a career high in strikeouts (211) and a career low in ERA (3.06). And he was even better after the All-Star break (2.23 ERA and 9.68 K/9) and in the post-season (1.20 ERA and 10.20 K/9).
14. Dan Haren, Angels: Haren actually had better splits after he was traded to the American League last year. In 14 starts with the Angels, Haren finished with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.16 (versus 4.60 and 1.35, respectively, with the Diamondbacks). That said, his K/9 rate dropped from 9.00 in Arizona to 7.18 with Los Angeles.
15. Francisco Liriano, Twins: Last year, Liriano bounced back with career highs in wins (14) and strikeouts (201). While switching to Target Field may not be a welcome move for the team's hitters, it helped Liriano set a career low in HR/9 of 0.42, which was the fourth lowest in baseball.
16. Jered Weaver, Angels: Last year, Weaver finished sixth in baseball in K/9 ratio (a career-high 9.35) among qualified leaders. Weaver also set career bests in innings (224.1), strikeouts (233), BB/9 ratio (2.17) and HR/9 ratio (0.92).
17. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: Gallardo, who turned 25 in February, has recorded 200-plus strikeouts and sub-4.00 ERAs in back-to-back seasons.
18. Roy Oswalt, Phillies: After Oswalt was acquired from the Astros, he was 7-1 with an ERA of 1.74 and WHIP of 0.90. While his peripherals were good before the trade (3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP), Oswalt was only 6-12 in 20 starts with Houston.
19. Matt Cain, Giants: Who was the "dark horse" candidate for N.L. Cy Young by Yahoo!'s Steve Henson? Considering where I'm asking this question, you surely know the answer (whether you or I agree with Henson or not). Despite having a career ERA of 3.45, however, Cain has an all-time record of 57-62 and has yet to win more than 14 games or strike out more than 186 batters in a season. In other words, I can see Cain finishing with about 15 wins, 180 strikeouts and and ERA of 3.25 (but no Cy Young).
20. Zack Greinke, Brewers: The good news is Greinke should have much better run support when he pitches in 2011 in addition to getting the opportunity to pitch to pitchers (and boost his strikeout rate). That said, we will have to wait to see that as Greinke, who will begin the season on the disabled list, might be out for all of April.
21. David Price, Rays
22. Mat Latos, Padres
23. Max Scherzer, Tigers
24. Brett Anderson, A's
25. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
26. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
27. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
28. Matt Garza, Cubs
29. Tim Hudson, Braves
30. Shaun Marcum, Brewers
31. Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays
32. Gio Gonzalez, A's
33. Ted Lilly, Dodgers
34. Madison Bumgarner, Giants
35. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
36. Brett Myers, Astros
37. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
38. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
39. Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks
40. John Danks, White Sox
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our fantasy rankings for everyday players: C - 1B - 2B - SS - 3B - OF
Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Outfielder Rankings
Our top three fantasy outfielders in 2011 are the same top three fantasy outfielders that most other sites have in their top three. However, I've seen all three in the top spot at a relatively even split. In an ideal world, I'd like to get my No. 1 outfielder as the third outfielder off the board.
Here are our top 50 outfielders in fantasy baseball for 2011:
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers: Although Braun hit a career-low 25 home runs in 2010, he has 90-plus runs, 97-plus runs batted in and 14-plus steals every year. Plus, he has hit .300-plus in three out of four seasons.
2. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: What a breakout season it was for Gonzalez! Despite missing 15 games, he finished with a line of .336-111-34-117-26. As solid as he was across the board, CarGo played much better at Coors Field (.380, 26 homers, 76 RBIs) than on the road (.289, eight homers, 41 RBIs) in 2010.
3. Carl Crawford, Red Sox: Crawford set career highs in runs scored (110), home runs (19) and runs batted in (90) last year in Tampa. In the past five years, Crawford has hit over .300 four times. And with the exception of his 109-game season in 2008, Crawford has stolen 46-plus bases every year since 2003.
4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals: Excluding his .290 batting average in his rookie season (.290), Holliday's full-year batting averages have been .300-plus every year. While he's unlikely to ever steal 28 bases again (as he did in 2008), Holliday will help in all counting numbers to the tune of roughly 95-100 runs, 100-110 runs batted in, 25-30 homers and 10-15 steals.
5. Matt Kemp, Dodgers: Other than a small year-over-year increase in home runs (26 to 28), Kemp's numbers declined across the board in 2010 from 2009. After three straight seasons hitting .290-plus, his average plummeted to .249. In addition, he saw year-over-year declines in runs scored (97 to 82), runs batted in (101 to 89) and stolen bases (34 to 19).
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers: When projecting Hamilton's fantasy value, the first thing you need to take into consideration is the number of games you expect him to play. Even so, he can be highly productive when he misses plenty of games as he proved last year by being named the A.L. MVP despite missing almost 30 games.
7. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: In 2010, three players hit .300-plus, hit 20-plus home runs and stole 20-plus bases: Florida's Hanley Ramirez, Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez and Choo. For Choo, he's done so in back-to-back seasons (his only two where he has played 100-plus games).
8. Nelson Cruz, Rangers: Over the past two seasons, Cruz has missed 88 games but he still managed to hit 55 home runs and steal 37 bases during that span. That's a 162-game pace of 37 home runs and 25 steals.
9. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks: Upton, the number one overall draft pick in 2005, is still only 23 years old and undoubtedly has plenty of upside. Over the past two years, Upton have averaged 21.5 home runs and 19 steals despite averaging only 135.5 games. With good health, Upton should easily reach 20-20 with the potential for 30-25.
10. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: Like Justin Upton, McCutchen was a high first-round pick in 2005 and has plenty of upside. As a 23-year-old, McCutchen finished with a line of .286-94-16-56-33. Since he'll start the season batting third in the Pirates' lineup, McCutchen should see his RBIs increase by a significant amount over last year's 56.
11. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: Since Ichiro won't help you in home runs and runs batted in, his value is tied to how well he performs in the batting average and steals categories. Over the past four seasons, he's had two seasons with .350-plus batting averages and two seasons with 40-plus steals. Only if he could do both in the same season (which he hasn't since 2001 and likely won't) ...
12. Jayson Werth, Nationals: Werth will play half of his games in Washington instead of Philadelphia, which is a bit of a concern, in 2011. That said, I can see a season of .275-100-25-100-15 (or close to it) for Werth.
13. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Although there's virtually no chance that he duplicates his 54-homer performance from 2010, Bautista could hit 35 or so homers with 100 runs batted in. Even better, he also has position eligibility at third base.
14. Jason Heyward, Braves: Heyward, who will turn 22 years old in August, hit .301 after the All-Star break in his rookie season last year. This spring, Heyward has been hitting the ball well (.356 average over 18 games). I see a line of .290-90-25-90-10 for Heyward in 2011.
15. Hunter Pence, Astros: Pence set career highs in runs scored (93), runs batted in (91) and stolen bases (18) in addition to tying his existing career high in home runs (25) in 2010. With a solid average (career .287 hitter), Pence should help in all categories at a very fair price.
16. Alex Rios, White Sox: There were 38 outfielders that hit 20-plus home runs in 2010. There were 15 outfielders that stole 30-plus bases in 2010. There were only two that did both -- Rios and Cincinnati's Drew Stubbs. The worry about Rios is his inconsistency and 15 (of his 21) home runs and 23 (of his 34) stolen bases came before the All-Star break.
17. Andre Ethier, Dodgers: Ethier got off to a hot start (.392 average, 11 homers and 38 runs batted in through 33 games) before fracturing his right pinky finger, which he feels bothered him after he came back too soon from the injury. He still managed to finish the season with a .292 average, 23 home runs and 82 runs batted in despite missing 23 games.
18. Mike Stanton, Marlins: Between Double-A and the Marlins, Stanton hit 43 home runs and 111 runs batted in combined. Stanton has big-time power and could come close to hitting 40 homers in his first full season in the big leagues. (Take our poll on how many home runs Stanton will hit in 2011.)
19. Jay Bruce, Reds: Bruce, who will turn 24 in April, hit .281 -- .338 from August to October -- with 25 home runs last season. As MLB.com's John Schlegel points out, Bruce has hit more home runs (68) than any other player his age and he ranks 41st all-time for most home runs in his first three seasons.
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: As the Red Sox leadoff hitter, Ellsbury should hit for a good average and rack up a ton of steals and runs. If you're a glass-half-empty kind-of guy, he won't do much to help in the power categories.
21. B.J. Upton, Rays: In the past two seasons, Upton has hit .241 or less. On a positive note, however, Upton has stolen 40-plus bases for three consecutive seasons. In addition, he hit 18 home runs last year while setting a career high in doubles (38). Had a couple of those doubles been homers, he would have been the only 20-40 outfielder last season.
22. Delmon Young, Twins: Young, baseball's top overall draft pick in 2003, hit nearly .300 (.298, to be exact) while setting career highs in home runs (21) and runs batted in (112) last year.
23. Chris Young, Diamondbacks: Young set career highs in runs scored (94), runs batted in (91), stolen bases (28) and batting average (.257) while belting 27 home runs. Provided the composition of your team will help you withstand the negative impact Young will have on your team's batting average, Young will help you all other categories.
24. Shane Victorino, Phillies: From 2006 to 2009, Victorino hit .281 or better every season. Although his batting average slipped to .259 in 2010, it was also the only season since 2006 in which his BABIP was below .300. Expect a bounce-back in average for the Flyin' Hawaiian, who has averaged 92 runs, 14 homers and 33 steals over the past four seasons.
25. Drew Stubbs, Reds: While Stubbs won't help any in batting average, Stubbs was one of only two outfielders to hit 20-plus home runs and steal 30-plus bases in 2010, as noted above.
26. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
27. Corey Hart, Brewers
28. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
29. Nick Markakis, Orioles
30. Carlos Lee, Astros
31. Torii Hunter, Angels
32. Bobby Abreu, Angels
33. Adam Jones, Orioles
34. Michael Bourn, Astros
35. Ben Zobrist, Rays
36. Juan Pierre, White Sox
37. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
38. Vernon Wells, Angels
39. Brett Gardner, Yankees
40. Nick Swisher, Yankees
41. Aubrey Huff, Giants
42. Grady Sizemore, Indians
43. Jason Bay, Mets
44. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays
45. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
46. Carlos Beltran, Mets
47. Chris Coghlan, Marlins
48. Denard Span, Twins
49. Manny Ramirez, Rays
50. Tyler Colvin, Cubs
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our fantasy rankings for infielders: C - 1B - 2B - SS - 3B
Here are our top 50 outfielders in fantasy baseball for 2011:
1. Ryan Braun, Brewers: Although Braun hit a career-low 25 home runs in 2010, he has 90-plus runs, 97-plus runs batted in and 14-plus steals every year. Plus, he has hit .300-plus in three out of four seasons.
2. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: What a breakout season it was for Gonzalez! Despite missing 15 games, he finished with a line of .336-111-34-117-26. As solid as he was across the board, CarGo played much better at Coors Field (.380, 26 homers, 76 RBIs) than on the road (.289, eight homers, 41 RBIs) in 2010.
3. Carl Crawford, Red Sox: Crawford set career highs in runs scored (110), home runs (19) and runs batted in (90) last year in Tampa. In the past five years, Crawford has hit over .300 four times. And with the exception of his 109-game season in 2008, Crawford has stolen 46-plus bases every year since 2003.
4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals: Excluding his .290 batting average in his rookie season (.290), Holliday's full-year batting averages have been .300-plus every year. While he's unlikely to ever steal 28 bases again (as he did in 2008), Holliday will help in all counting numbers to the tune of roughly 95-100 runs, 100-110 runs batted in, 25-30 homers and 10-15 steals.
5. Matt Kemp, Dodgers: Other than a small year-over-year increase in home runs (26 to 28), Kemp's numbers declined across the board in 2010 from 2009. After three straight seasons hitting .290-plus, his average plummeted to .249. In addition, he saw year-over-year declines in runs scored (97 to 82), runs batted in (101 to 89) and stolen bases (34 to 19).
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers: When projecting Hamilton's fantasy value, the first thing you need to take into consideration is the number of games you expect him to play. Even so, he can be highly productive when he misses plenty of games as he proved last year by being named the A.L. MVP despite missing almost 30 games.
7. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: In 2010, three players hit .300-plus, hit 20-plus home runs and stole 20-plus bases: Florida's Hanley Ramirez, Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez and Choo. For Choo, he's done so in back-to-back seasons (his only two where he has played 100-plus games).
8. Nelson Cruz, Rangers: Over the past two seasons, Cruz has missed 88 games but he still managed to hit 55 home runs and steal 37 bases during that span. That's a 162-game pace of 37 home runs and 25 steals.
9. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks: Upton, the number one overall draft pick in 2005, is still only 23 years old and undoubtedly has plenty of upside. Over the past two years, Upton have averaged 21.5 home runs and 19 steals despite averaging only 135.5 games. With good health, Upton should easily reach 20-20 with the potential for 30-25.
10. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: Like Justin Upton, McCutchen was a high first-round pick in 2005 and has plenty of upside. As a 23-year-old, McCutchen finished with a line of .286-94-16-56-33. Since he'll start the season batting third in the Pirates' lineup, McCutchen should see his RBIs increase by a significant amount over last year's 56.
11. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: Since Ichiro won't help you in home runs and runs batted in, his value is tied to how well he performs in the batting average and steals categories. Over the past four seasons, he's had two seasons with .350-plus batting averages and two seasons with 40-plus steals. Only if he could do both in the same season (which he hasn't since 2001 and likely won't) ...
12. Jayson Werth, Nationals: Werth will play half of his games in Washington instead of Philadelphia, which is a bit of a concern, in 2011. That said, I can see a season of .275-100-25-100-15 (or close to it) for Werth.
13. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Although there's virtually no chance that he duplicates his 54-homer performance from 2010, Bautista could hit 35 or so homers with 100 runs batted in. Even better, he also has position eligibility at third base.
14. Jason Heyward, Braves: Heyward, who will turn 22 years old in August, hit .301 after the All-Star break in his rookie season last year. This spring, Heyward has been hitting the ball well (.356 average over 18 games). I see a line of .290-90-25-90-10 for Heyward in 2011.
15. Hunter Pence, Astros: Pence set career highs in runs scored (93), runs batted in (91) and stolen bases (18) in addition to tying his existing career high in home runs (25) in 2010. With a solid average (career .287 hitter), Pence should help in all categories at a very fair price.
16. Alex Rios, White Sox: There were 38 outfielders that hit 20-plus home runs in 2010. There were 15 outfielders that stole 30-plus bases in 2010. There were only two that did both -- Rios and Cincinnati's Drew Stubbs. The worry about Rios is his inconsistency and 15 (of his 21) home runs and 23 (of his 34) stolen bases came before the All-Star break.
17. Andre Ethier, Dodgers: Ethier got off to a hot start (.392 average, 11 homers and 38 runs batted in through 33 games) before fracturing his right pinky finger, which he feels bothered him after he came back too soon from the injury. He still managed to finish the season with a .292 average, 23 home runs and 82 runs batted in despite missing 23 games.
18. Mike Stanton, Marlins: Between Double-A and the Marlins, Stanton hit 43 home runs and 111 runs batted in combined. Stanton has big-time power and could come close to hitting 40 homers in his first full season in the big leagues. (Take our poll on how many home runs Stanton will hit in 2011.)
19. Jay Bruce, Reds: Bruce, who will turn 24 in April, hit .281 -- .338 from August to October -- with 25 home runs last season. As MLB.com's John Schlegel points out, Bruce has hit more home runs (68) than any other player his age and he ranks 41st all-time for most home runs in his first three seasons.
20. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: As the Red Sox leadoff hitter, Ellsbury should hit for a good average and rack up a ton of steals and runs. If you're a glass-half-empty kind-of guy, he won't do much to help in the power categories.
21. B.J. Upton, Rays: In the past two seasons, Upton has hit .241 or less. On a positive note, however, Upton has stolen 40-plus bases for three consecutive seasons. In addition, he hit 18 home runs last year while setting a career high in doubles (38). Had a couple of those doubles been homers, he would have been the only 20-40 outfielder last season.
22. Delmon Young, Twins: Young, baseball's top overall draft pick in 2003, hit nearly .300 (.298, to be exact) while setting career highs in home runs (21) and runs batted in (112) last year.
23. Chris Young, Diamondbacks: Young set career highs in runs scored (94), runs batted in (91), stolen bases (28) and batting average (.257) while belting 27 home runs. Provided the composition of your team will help you withstand the negative impact Young will have on your team's batting average, Young will help you all other categories.
24. Shane Victorino, Phillies: From 2006 to 2009, Victorino hit .281 or better every season. Although his batting average slipped to .259 in 2010, it was also the only season since 2006 in which his BABIP was below .300. Expect a bounce-back in average for the Flyin' Hawaiian, who has averaged 92 runs, 14 homers and 33 steals over the past four seasons.
25. Drew Stubbs, Reds: While Stubbs won't help any in batting average, Stubbs was one of only two outfielders to hit 20-plus home runs and steal 30-plus bases in 2010, as noted above.
26. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals
27. Corey Hart, Brewers
28. Curtis Granderson, Yankees
29. Nick Markakis, Orioles
30. Carlos Lee, Astros
31. Torii Hunter, Angels
32. Bobby Abreu, Angels
33. Adam Jones, Orioles
34. Michael Bourn, Astros
35. Ben Zobrist, Rays
36. Juan Pierre, White Sox
37. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
38. Vernon Wells, Angels
39. Brett Gardner, Yankees
40. Nick Swisher, Yankees
41. Aubrey Huff, Giants
42. Grady Sizemore, Indians
43. Jason Bay, Mets
44. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays
45. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
46. Carlos Beltran, Mets
47. Chris Coghlan, Marlins
48. Denard Span, Twins
49. Manny Ramirez, Rays
50. Tyler Colvin, Cubs
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our fantasy rankings for infielders: C - 1B - 2B - SS - 3B
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Third Basemen Rankings
Third base isn't exceptionally deep, but a couple of solid options (Boston's Kevin Youkilis and Seattle's Chone Figgins) will earn eligibility at the position in April.
Here are our top 15 fantasy third basemen for 2011:
1. Evan Longoria, Rays: Everywhere you look, Longoria will likely be the top-ranked fantasy third baseman and you'll likely need a top-five to have the chance to draft him. As the third-overall pick in the 2006 draft, Longoria is still only 25 years old with plenty of upside. In other words, a season of .294-100-33-113-15, which are his career highs, (or better) is certainly possible in 2011. (And hopefully there won't be any more stolen AK-47 stories this year.)
2. David Wright, Mets: After a disappointing 2009 season, Wright was shy of a 30-20 season by exactly one home run and one stolen base. By hitting a career-low .283 last year, Wright ended a streak of five consecutive seasons of hitting .300-plus. In other words, if things fall into place, Wright has as good of a chance as any third basemen to finish with a line of .300-100-30-100-20.
3. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals: Zimmerman missed 20 games last season, but he set career highs in home runs (33), runs scored (110) and runs batted in (106) while playing 157 games in 2009. Although he won't steal many bases, he will provide a boost in all of the other four categories.
4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: A year older? Who isn't, right? Granted, A-Rod is nowhere near the all-around fantasy stud he once was and he hasn't played more than 138 games in any of the past three seasons. That said, Rodriguez has posted 30-plus homers and 100-plus runs batted in every season since 1998 including in the past three seasons. In my opinion, he's sliding to a point where he could out to be a bargain in most drafts.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Although he's not yet eligible at third base, he will be at some point in April depending on your league's eligibility requirements. Here's what I wrote about Youkilis in our first base rankings, where he's No. 7: "Over the past five seasons, Youkilis has not played more than 147 games in any year. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Youkilis could/should put up around or more than 100 runs, 100 runs batted in, 30 homers while hitting .300."
6. Adrian Beltre, Rangers: Beltre, who turns 32 years old in April, is now entering his 14th season in the big leagues. Only twice in his 13 years has he hit over .300 with 28-plus home runs and 100-plus runs batted in. Coincidentally, both of those seasons happened before getting a big contract. While he has the skills to do it a third time in his career in 2011, I'd like to see back-to-back strong seasons from Beltre before I'm a buyer at these prices.
7. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Bautista led all of baseball in home runs last year with 54, which is nearly equal to his home run output from 2004 to 2009 (59 home runs total). While a repeat performance is highly unlikely, there's a good chance that he can follow up last year's league-leading performance with 35-40 homers in 2011.
8. Casey McGehee, Brewers: Only two other third basemen -- Longoria and A-Rod -- have more runs batted in than McGehee (149) since July 1, 2010. While he won't steal bases, like most third basemen won't, McGehee will help in the other four statistical categories in standard 5x5 categories at a very reasonable cost.
9. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: Last year, Ramirez hit only .241, which was lowest batting average since 2002. From 2004 to 2009, Ramirez hit .289 or higher every season including .300-plus in four out of six seasons. Although Ramirez only played 124 games last year, he drove in 100-plus runs in all five seasons in which he has played 125-plus games since 2003. Provided he can stay healthy, a bounce-back season seems reasonable.
10. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: Sandoval broke out in 2009 -- hitting .330 with 25 home runs and 90 runs batted in. Although he had a disappointing season in 2010, Sandoval is only 24 years old, lost a substantial amount of weight in the off-season and shortened his swing. Based on his average draft position of 127 from Mock Draft Central, Sandoval seems to offer more reward than risk this season.
11. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates: There's no doubt that Alvarez has tremendous upside and potential. Although Alvarez struck out in 34.3 percent of his major league at bats last year, he combined for 29 home runs and 117 runs batted in between Triple-A and the big leagues.
12. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.
13. Michael Young, Rangers: Young, who is a career .300 hitter, hit 20 home runs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While he may or may not hit 20-plus homers in three straight seasons for the first time in his career, Young is one of the more consistent hitters in the game.
14. Mark Reynolds, Orioles: The good news? Reynolds is the only player in baseball to hit 100-plus home runs and steal 40-plus bases during the past three seasons. The bad news? He's hit .234 during that span while striking out an average of 213 times per season.
15. Ian Stewart, Rockies: Stewart isn't going to win a batting title any time soon and missed about a quarter of the 2010 season. But with good health, Stewart has the power to hit 25-30 home runs in an offense that features two of baseball's elite hitters: Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki.
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our other fantasy rankings for infielders: C - 1B - 2B - SS
Here are our top 15 fantasy third basemen for 2011:
1. Evan Longoria, Rays: Everywhere you look, Longoria will likely be the top-ranked fantasy third baseman and you'll likely need a top-five to have the chance to draft him. As the third-overall pick in the 2006 draft, Longoria is still only 25 years old with plenty of upside. In other words, a season of .294-100-33-113-15, which are his career highs, (or better) is certainly possible in 2011. (And hopefully there won't be any more stolen AK-47 stories this year.)
2. David Wright, Mets: After a disappointing 2009 season, Wright was shy of a 30-20 season by exactly one home run and one stolen base. By hitting a career-low .283 last year, Wright ended a streak of five consecutive seasons of hitting .300-plus. In other words, if things fall into place, Wright has as good of a chance as any third basemen to finish with a line of .300-100-30-100-20.
3. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals: Zimmerman missed 20 games last season, but he set career highs in home runs (33), runs scored (110) and runs batted in (106) while playing 157 games in 2009. Although he won't steal many bases, he will provide a boost in all of the other four categories.
4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: A year older? Who isn't, right? Granted, A-Rod is nowhere near the all-around fantasy stud he once was and he hasn't played more than 138 games in any of the past three seasons. That said, Rodriguez has posted 30-plus homers and 100-plus runs batted in every season since 1998 including in the past three seasons. In my opinion, he's sliding to a point where he could out to be a bargain in most drafts.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Although he's not yet eligible at third base, he will be at some point in April depending on your league's eligibility requirements. Here's what I wrote about Youkilis in our first base rankings, where he's No. 7: "Over the past five seasons, Youkilis has not played more than 147 games in any year. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Youkilis could/should put up around or more than 100 runs, 100 runs batted in, 30 homers while hitting .300."
6. Adrian Beltre, Rangers: Beltre, who turns 32 years old in April, is now entering his 14th season in the big leagues. Only twice in his 13 years has he hit over .300 with 28-plus home runs and 100-plus runs batted in. Coincidentally, both of those seasons happened before getting a big contract. While he has the skills to do it a third time in his career in 2011, I'd like to see back-to-back strong seasons from Beltre before I'm a buyer at these prices.
7. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: Bautista led all of baseball in home runs last year with 54, which is nearly equal to his home run output from 2004 to 2009 (59 home runs total). While a repeat performance is highly unlikely, there's a good chance that he can follow up last year's league-leading performance with 35-40 homers in 2011.
8. Casey McGehee, Brewers: Only two other third basemen -- Longoria and A-Rod -- have more runs batted in than McGehee (149) since July 1, 2010. While he won't steal bases, like most third basemen won't, McGehee will help in the other four statistical categories in standard 5x5 categories at a very reasonable cost.
9. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: Last year, Ramirez hit only .241, which was lowest batting average since 2002. From 2004 to 2009, Ramirez hit .289 or higher every season including .300-plus in four out of six seasons. Although Ramirez only played 124 games last year, he drove in 100-plus runs in all five seasons in which he has played 125-plus games since 2003. Provided he can stay healthy, a bounce-back season seems reasonable.
10. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: Sandoval broke out in 2009 -- hitting .330 with 25 home runs and 90 runs batted in. Although he had a disappointing season in 2010, Sandoval is only 24 years old, lost a substantial amount of weight in the off-season and shortened his swing. Based on his average draft position of 127 from Mock Draft Central, Sandoval seems to offer more reward than risk this season.
11. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates: There's no doubt that Alvarez has tremendous upside and potential. Although Alvarez struck out in 34.3 percent of his major league at bats last year, he combined for 29 home runs and 117 runs batted in between Triple-A and the big leagues.
12. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.
13. Michael Young, Rangers: Young, who is a career .300 hitter, hit 20 home runs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. While he may or may not hit 20-plus homers in three straight seasons for the first time in his career, Young is one of the more consistent hitters in the game.
14. Mark Reynolds, Orioles: The good news? Reynolds is the only player in baseball to hit 100-plus home runs and steal 40-plus bases during the past three seasons. The bad news? He's hit .234 during that span while striking out an average of 213 times per season.
15. Ian Stewart, Rockies: Stewart isn't going to win a batting title any time soon and missed about a quarter of the 2010 season. But with good health, Stewart has the power to hit 25-30 home runs in an offense that features two of baseball's elite hitters: Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki.
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
See our other fantasy rankings for infielders: C - 1B - 2B - SS
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Fantasy Baseball: 2011 Second Basemen Rankings
The biggest question at second base heading into the 2011 season is what will fantasy owners get from Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.
When healthy and at his best, Utley is elite. He has posted career highs in the standard five rotisserie categories, as follows: .332-131-33-105-23.
The problem is the health, or lack thereof, of Utley's knee, which will likely land him on the disabled list to start the season. From a fantasy perspective, the bigger worry is that improvement in his knee seems to be moving a snail's pace. How soon will he be back? Will the injury linger and affect his performance when he's back on the field?
Here are our top 15 fantasy second basemen for 2011:
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: With the exception of stolen bases, Cano puts up elite stats across the board at a relatively weak position. Cano, who set career highs in home runs (29) and runs batted in (109) in 2010, has the second-most hits in all of baseball over the past two seasons.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: In addition to hitting over .300 for his career, Pedroia gives fantasy owners the potential for a 15-20 season. Despite missing half of last year, Pedroia ranks tenth in the majors in runs scored (286) from 2008 to 2010.
3. Dan Uggla, Braves: At a position where power hitters are less common, Uggla has a been a model of consistency when it comes to power. In each of the past four seasons, Uggla has hit 31-33 home runs and has driven in 90-plus runs including a career-high 105 last season. But will you get his career-low .243 (2009) or career-high .287 (2010) batting average? Although he's a career .354 hitter in his new home ballpark (Turner Field), the answer likely falls somewhere in between that range.
4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: The biggest knock on Kinsler is playing time (123.6 games per season over past five years). If healthy, Kinsler has the potential to put up elite numbers. For example, when he played a career-high 144 games (2009), Kinsler hit 31 homers and stole 31 bases.
5. Brandon Phillips, Reds: For the first time in four seasons, Phillips failed to have a 20-20 season. In 2010, he finished with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases. The majority of Phillips' at-bats in 2010 came at one of the top two spots of the lineup after mostly batting cleanup in 2009. The effect? His runs batted in dropped from 98 in 2009 to a five-year low of 59 in 2010.
6. Chase Utley, Phillies: Two seasons removed from a 30-20 season, Utley will most likely begin the 2011 season on the disabled list after missing a total of 47 games last year. If he were healthy, Utley would be second on this list.
7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers: Speaking of health, Weeks played an average of 95 games per season from 2005 through 2009 before playing a career-high 160 games last year. Naturally, he set career-highs in runs scored (112), hits (175), home runs (29) and runs batted in (83) in 2010. The only way he approaches those numbers again is if he can stay healthy for two seasons in a row. Before last year, he hadn't done that for one season in a row.
8. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.
9. Gordon Beckham, White Sox: After hitting 14 homers with 63 runs batted in over 103 games in his rookie season, Beckham seemed poised for a breakout season last year. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft got off to an incredibly slow start in 2010, but he picked up the pace as he hit .310 after the All-Star break. Beckham, who will bat second for the White Sox this season, is a guy I've targeted in most of my drafts this year.
10. Ben Zobrist, Rays: Like Prado, Zobrist has multi-position eligibility as a second baseman and outfielder (and first baseman in Yahoo! leagues). After a breakout season in 2009 (.297-91-27-91-17), Zobrist really struggled down the stretch last season. After the All-Star break, Zobrist hit only .177 and hit .200 or lower per month from July to October. On a positive note, Zobrist stole a career-high 24 bases in 2010 and will likely have even more base-stealing opportunities as the team's leadoff hitter.
11. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays: Not only did Hill have the lowest BABIP (.196) of his career, it was the lowest in all of baseball. Even with the horrible BABIP and batting average (.205), Hill still managed to hit 26 home runs in 2010.
12. Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: In his first season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson set career highs in runs (93), hits (166), home runs (26), runs batted in (71) and stolen bases (13) in 2010. Johnson hit .311 with 16 of his 26 home runs at Chase Field last year.
13. Howie Kendrick, Angels: The direction of his batting averages over the past four seasons isn't what you'd like to see: .322 (2007), .306 (2008), .291 (2009) and .279 (2010). That said, he set career highs in several counting statistics: runs scored (67), runs batted in (75), stolen bases (14) and tied his career high in home runs (ten).
14. Chone Figgins, Mariners: Since 2004, Figgins has stolen 30-plus bases every season. In five of the past six seasons, he has stolen 40-plus bases. Figgins is having a good spring (.349 average and four steals in 16 games).
15. Brian Roberts, Orioles: When healthy, Roberts has provided fantasy owners with lots of runs and stolen bases and a decent batting average. Before missing 100-plus games in 2010, Roberts stole 30-plus bases for four consecutive seasons although he went from 50 (2007) to 40 (2008) to 30 (2009).
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
When healthy and at his best, Utley is elite. He has posted career highs in the standard five rotisserie categories, as follows: .332-131-33-105-23.
The problem is the health, or lack thereof, of Utley's knee, which will likely land him on the disabled list to start the season. From a fantasy perspective, the bigger worry is that improvement in his knee seems to be moving a snail's pace. How soon will he be back? Will the injury linger and affect his performance when he's back on the field?
Here are our top 15 fantasy second basemen for 2011:
1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: With the exception of stolen bases, Cano puts up elite stats across the board at a relatively weak position. Cano, who set career highs in home runs (29) and runs batted in (109) in 2010, has the second-most hits in all of baseball over the past two seasons.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: In addition to hitting over .300 for his career, Pedroia gives fantasy owners the potential for a 15-20 season. Despite missing half of last year, Pedroia ranks tenth in the majors in runs scored (286) from 2008 to 2010.
3. Dan Uggla, Braves: At a position where power hitters are less common, Uggla has a been a model of consistency when it comes to power. In each of the past four seasons, Uggla has hit 31-33 home runs and has driven in 90-plus runs including a career-high 105 last season. But will you get his career-low .243 (2009) or career-high .287 (2010) batting average? Although he's a career .354 hitter in his new home ballpark (Turner Field), the answer likely falls somewhere in between that range.
4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: The biggest knock on Kinsler is playing time (123.6 games per season over past five years). If healthy, Kinsler has the potential to put up elite numbers. For example, when he played a career-high 144 games (2009), Kinsler hit 31 homers and stole 31 bases.
5. Brandon Phillips, Reds: For the first time in four seasons, Phillips failed to have a 20-20 season. In 2010, he finished with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases. The majority of Phillips' at-bats in 2010 came at one of the top two spots of the lineup after mostly batting cleanup in 2009. The effect? His runs batted in dropped from 98 in 2009 to a five-year low of 59 in 2010.
6. Chase Utley, Phillies: Two seasons removed from a 30-20 season, Utley will most likely begin the 2011 season on the disabled list after missing a total of 47 games last year. If he were healthy, Utley would be second on this list.
7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers: Speaking of health, Weeks played an average of 95 games per season from 2005 through 2009 before playing a career-high 160 games last year. Naturally, he set career-highs in runs scored (112), hits (175), home runs (29) and runs batted in (83) in 2010. The only way he approaches those numbers again is if he can stay healthy for two seasons in a row. Before last year, he hadn't done that for one season in a row.
8. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.
9. Gordon Beckham, White Sox: After hitting 14 homers with 63 runs batted in over 103 games in his rookie season, Beckham seemed poised for a breakout season last year. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft got off to an incredibly slow start in 2010, but he picked up the pace as he hit .310 after the All-Star break. Beckham, who will bat second for the White Sox this season, is a guy I've targeted in most of my drafts this year.
10. Ben Zobrist, Rays: Like Prado, Zobrist has multi-position eligibility as a second baseman and outfielder (and first baseman in Yahoo! leagues). After a breakout season in 2009 (.297-91-27-91-17), Zobrist really struggled down the stretch last season. After the All-Star break, Zobrist hit only .177 and hit .200 or lower per month from July to October. On a positive note, Zobrist stole a career-high 24 bases in 2010 and will likely have even more base-stealing opportunities as the team's leadoff hitter.
11. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays: Not only did Hill have the lowest BABIP (.196) of his career, it was the lowest in all of baseball. Even with the horrible BABIP and batting average (.205), Hill still managed to hit 26 home runs in 2010.
12. Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: In his first season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson set career highs in runs (93), hits (166), home runs (26), runs batted in (71) and stolen bases (13) in 2010. Johnson hit .311 with 16 of his 26 home runs at Chase Field last year.
13. Howie Kendrick, Angels: The direction of his batting averages over the past four seasons isn't what you'd like to see: .322 (2007), .306 (2008), .291 (2009) and .279 (2010). That said, he set career highs in several counting statistics: runs scored (67), runs batted in (75), stolen bases (14) and tied his career high in home runs (ten).
14. Chone Figgins, Mariners: Since 2004, Figgins has stolen 30-plus bases every season. In five of the past six seasons, he has stolen 40-plus bases. Figgins is having a good spring (.349 average and four steals in 16 games).
15. Brian Roberts, Orioles: When healthy, Roberts has provided fantasy owners with lots of runs and stolen bases and a decent batting average. Before missing 100-plus games in 2010, Roberts stole 30-plus bases for four consecutive seasons although he went from 50 (2007) to 40 (2008) to 30 (2009).
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Fantasy Baseball: 2011 First Basemen Rankings
Without question, first base is the deepest position for everyday players. The top seven or eight first basemen will likely be drafted in the first two rounds of your 12-team league.
Some players on our list played 10-19 games at first base in 2010, which means the player may or may not qualify as a first baseman in your league. For example, Yahoo! leagues require a player to appear in at least ten games at that position in the previous year. For ESPN leagues, the requirement is 20-plus games.
Based on lower eligibility requirements, first base is even deeper for participants in Yahoo! leagues than those participating in ESPN leagues.
Here are the top 20 fantasy first basemen for 2011:
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Through ten seasons, Pujols has had career lows of .312 batting average (2010), 32 home runs (2007) and 103 runs batted in (2007). While that is the worst-case scenario, a typical (average) season for the career .331 hitter is 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in.
2. Joey Votto, Reds: While first base is loaded with talent, Votto finished no lower than top-five in all five standard rotisserie categories. The reigning N.L. MVP set career-highs in runs scored (106), home runs (37), runs batted in (113), steals (17) and batting average (.324) as well.
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: During his five years as a Padre, Gonzalez hit .267 and 57 home runs (one per 24.7 at bats) with 201 runs batted in at home. On the road, however, Gonzalez hit .307 and 104 home runs (one per 15.1 at bats) with 300 runs batted in. The change of scenery can only do Gonzalez some good despite finishing 2010 with an average of .298, 31 home runs and 101 runs batted in.
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: Over the past three seasons, only two first basemen have hit over .300 with 100 home runs and 350 runs batted in: Cabrera and Pujols. If it weren't for his alcohol problems highlighted by his run-in with the law in February, Cabrera would have been ranked ahead of all first basemen not named Albert Pujols.
5. Mark Teixeira, Yankees: Teixeira, who hit a career-low .256 in 2010, hit .280-plus every season and over .300 three times from 2004 to 2009. With seven consecutive seasons of 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs, you know what you'll get in the power department from Teixeira. But will Teixeira hit .256, .280 or .300?
6. Prince Fielder, Brewers: Last year, Fielder set a four-year low in home runs (32) and runs batted in (83) while hitting a career-worse .261. The year before, Fielder set career highs in runs batted in (141) and average (.299) while posting the second-highest homer total (46) of his career. Splitting the difference would be 39 home runs, 112 runs batted in and a .280 average. Sounds good to me.
7. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Over the past five seasons, Youkilis has not played more than 147 games in any year. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Youkilis could/should put up around or more than 100 runs, 100 runs batted in, 30 homers while hitting .300. His bigger value will come once he gains eligibility at the much more talent-scarce position of third base.
8. Ryan Howard, Phillies: Over the past five years, no player has more home runs (229) or runs batted in (680) than Howard. In addition, Howard leads the majors in strikeouts (922) during that span.
9. Adam Dunn, White Sox: From 2004 to 2010, Dunn has hit 38-plus home runs and driven in 100-plus runs six times (the 'off' season of 2006 was 92 RBIs). Trading in a half-season of games in Washington for U.S. Cellular Field can't hurt Dunn's power production and it wouldn't surprise me to see Dunn lead baseball in home runs. However, will he hit .260-plus for a third straight season?
10. Justin Morneau, Twins: Although he hasn't played a regular-season game since suffering a concussion in July, a full season from a healthy Morneau would make him a huge bargain at this spot. Morneau played exactly one-half of a season (81 games) last year and hit .345 with 18 home runs and 56 runs batted in. Before last season, Morneau drove in 100-plus runs for four straight years and hit 30-plus homers in three of those seasons.
11. Buster Posey, Giants: As one of the top three catchers in our fantasy rankings, however, you will more likely use Posey as your team's catcher despite his eligibility at first base. Manager Bruce Bochy has stated that Posey will get full days off when he's not catching, which means a season of around 135 games. That said, Posey should hit around .300 and 20 home runs in 2011.
12. Billy Butler, Royals: If there's one thing you can bank on from Butler, it's his strong batting average. Whether we see a power surge from Butler remains to be seen, but he's only 24 years old and has hit the most doubles (96) in baseball over the past two years combined. If only he could turn a few of those doubles into homers ...
13. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: With 11 games logged at first base in 2010, Sandoval may be eligible at first base in your league. He disappointed in the follow-up performance to his breakout season of 2009 (.330 average, 25 homers, 90 runs batted in). Sandoval, who is only 24 years old, could be primed for a bounce-back season after losing weight in the off-season and shortening his swing.
14. Paul Konerko, White Sox: It's unlikely that Konerko will duplicate his 2010 numbers (.312 average, 39 home runs and 111 runs batted in). Then again, only five other players hit .300-30-100 or better last season. Three of those other five were first basemen: Pujols, Cabrera and Votto.
15. Kendry Morales, Angels: Morales, who will begin the 2011 season on the disabled list, hasn't played a game since May 29th. In his only full season or close to it (152 games), Morales hit .306 with 34 home runs and 108 runs batted in.
16. Carlos Lee, Astros: Ending a four-year streak of hitting .300-plus, Lee posted a career-low batting average (.246) while hitting only 24 home runs (lowest total since 2001) with 89 runs batted in (lowest since 2002). Considering Lee also had his lowest BABIP (.238) of his career in 2010, an improvement over last season seems reasonable.
17. Aubrey Huff, Giants: Last year, Huff hit .290 with 26 home runs and 86 runs batted in. Huff, who is a career .283 hitter, should hit relatively close to .290 again although I would be surprised to see him exceed his home run total from 2010.
18. Carlos Pena, Cubs: The good news? Pena will go yard in one out of every 13.4 (or so) at bats, which was his average during his four years in Tampa. The bad news? He got a hit in less than every five at bats last season. (Take small consolation in the fact that only Aaron Hill had a lower BABIP in all of baseball than Pena last year.) The moderate news? He was tied for 11th in baseball in walks (87) last year so his on-base percentage isn't horrible if that helps you.
19. Adam Lind, Blue Jays: After a breakout season in 2009 (.305 average, 35 homers, 114 runs batted in), Lind disappointed fantasy owners in 2010 (.237-23-72). Not only did he hit .174 and .156 last May and June, respectively, but he hit only one home run in 90 at bats during June. Perhaps his better second-half performance and solid spring (hitting .341 through 16 games) bodes well for Lind.
20. Adam LaRoche, Nationals: LaRoche is a career .295 hitter that hits a homer every 18.3 at bats. In the second half, that is. LaRoche is notorious for his poor first-half performances (career .252 hitter and homer every 24.8 at bats before the All-Star break) and his (relative) strong performances (noted earlier) after the break.
As we noted above, first base is exceptionally deep. Players outside our top 20, such as Gaby Sanchez (Florida), Ike Davis (Mets), Mitch Moreland (Texas) and Brandon Belt (San Francisco) as a few examples, of players with upside that are viable fantasy options.
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
Some players on our list played 10-19 games at first base in 2010, which means the player may or may not qualify as a first baseman in your league. For example, Yahoo! leagues require a player to appear in at least ten games at that position in the previous year. For ESPN leagues, the requirement is 20-plus games.
Based on lower eligibility requirements, first base is even deeper for participants in Yahoo! leagues than those participating in ESPN leagues.
Here are the top 20 fantasy first basemen for 2011:
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals: Through ten seasons, Pujols has had career lows of .312 batting average (2010), 32 home runs (2007) and 103 runs batted in (2007). While that is the worst-case scenario, a typical (average) season for the career .331 hitter is 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in.
2. Joey Votto, Reds: While first base is loaded with talent, Votto finished no lower than top-five in all five standard rotisserie categories. The reigning N.L. MVP set career-highs in runs scored (106), home runs (37), runs batted in (113), steals (17) and batting average (.324) as well.
3. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: During his five years as a Padre, Gonzalez hit .267 and 57 home runs (one per 24.7 at bats) with 201 runs batted in at home. On the road, however, Gonzalez hit .307 and 104 home runs (one per 15.1 at bats) with 300 runs batted in. The change of scenery can only do Gonzalez some good despite finishing 2010 with an average of .298, 31 home runs and 101 runs batted in.
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: Over the past three seasons, only two first basemen have hit over .300 with 100 home runs and 350 runs batted in: Cabrera and Pujols. If it weren't for his alcohol problems highlighted by his run-in with the law in February, Cabrera would have been ranked ahead of all first basemen not named Albert Pujols.
5. Mark Teixeira, Yankees: Teixeira, who hit a career-low .256 in 2010, hit .280-plus every season and over .300 three times from 2004 to 2009. With seven consecutive seasons of 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs, you know what you'll get in the power department from Teixeira. But will Teixeira hit .256, .280 or .300?
6. Prince Fielder, Brewers: Last year, Fielder set a four-year low in home runs (32) and runs batted in (83) while hitting a career-worse .261. The year before, Fielder set career highs in runs batted in (141) and average (.299) while posting the second-highest homer total (46) of his career. Splitting the difference would be 39 home runs, 112 runs batted in and a .280 average. Sounds good to me.
7. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox: Over the past five seasons, Youkilis has not played more than 147 games in any year. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Youkilis could/should put up around or more than 100 runs, 100 runs batted in, 30 homers while hitting .300. His bigger value will come once he gains eligibility at the much more talent-scarce position of third base.
8. Ryan Howard, Phillies: Over the past five years, no player has more home runs (229) or runs batted in (680) than Howard. In addition, Howard leads the majors in strikeouts (922) during that span.
9. Adam Dunn, White Sox: From 2004 to 2010, Dunn has hit 38-plus home runs and driven in 100-plus runs six times (the 'off' season of 2006 was 92 RBIs). Trading in a half-season of games in Washington for U.S. Cellular Field can't hurt Dunn's power production and it wouldn't surprise me to see Dunn lead baseball in home runs. However, will he hit .260-plus for a third straight season?
10. Justin Morneau, Twins: Although he hasn't played a regular-season game since suffering a concussion in July, a full season from a healthy Morneau would make him a huge bargain at this spot. Morneau played exactly one-half of a season (81 games) last year and hit .345 with 18 home runs and 56 runs batted in. Before last season, Morneau drove in 100-plus runs for four straight years and hit 30-plus homers in three of those seasons.
11. Buster Posey, Giants: As one of the top three catchers in our fantasy rankings, however, you will more likely use Posey as your team's catcher despite his eligibility at first base. Manager Bruce Bochy has stated that Posey will get full days off when he's not catching, which means a season of around 135 games. That said, Posey should hit around .300 and 20 home runs in 2011.
12. Billy Butler, Royals: If there's one thing you can bank on from Butler, it's his strong batting average. Whether we see a power surge from Butler remains to be seen, but he's only 24 years old and has hit the most doubles (96) in baseball over the past two years combined. If only he could turn a few of those doubles into homers ...
13. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: With 11 games logged at first base in 2010, Sandoval may be eligible at first base in your league. He disappointed in the follow-up performance to his breakout season of 2009 (.330 average, 25 homers, 90 runs batted in). Sandoval, who is only 24 years old, could be primed for a bounce-back season after losing weight in the off-season and shortening his swing.
14. Paul Konerko, White Sox: It's unlikely that Konerko will duplicate his 2010 numbers (.312 average, 39 home runs and 111 runs batted in). Then again, only five other players hit .300-30-100 or better last season. Three of those other five were first basemen: Pujols, Cabrera and Votto.
15. Kendry Morales, Angels: Morales, who will begin the 2011 season on the disabled list, hasn't played a game since May 29th. In his only full season or close to it (152 games), Morales hit .306 with 34 home runs and 108 runs batted in.
16. Carlos Lee, Astros: Ending a four-year streak of hitting .300-plus, Lee posted a career-low batting average (.246) while hitting only 24 home runs (lowest total since 2001) with 89 runs batted in (lowest since 2002). Considering Lee also had his lowest BABIP (.238) of his career in 2010, an improvement over last season seems reasonable.
17. Aubrey Huff, Giants: Last year, Huff hit .290 with 26 home runs and 86 runs batted in. Huff, who is a career .283 hitter, should hit relatively close to .290 again although I would be surprised to see him exceed his home run total from 2010.
18. Carlos Pena, Cubs: The good news? Pena will go yard in one out of every 13.4 (or so) at bats, which was his average during his four years in Tampa. The bad news? He got a hit in less than every five at bats last season. (Take small consolation in the fact that only Aaron Hill had a lower BABIP in all of baseball than Pena last year.) The moderate news? He was tied for 11th in baseball in walks (87) last year so his on-base percentage isn't horrible if that helps you.
19. Adam Lind, Blue Jays: After a breakout season in 2009 (.305 average, 35 homers, 114 runs batted in), Lind disappointed fantasy owners in 2010 (.237-23-72). Not only did he hit .174 and .156 last May and June, respectively, but he hit only one home run in 90 at bats during June. Perhaps his better second-half performance and solid spring (hitting .341 through 16 games) bodes well for Lind.
20. Adam LaRoche, Nationals: LaRoche is a career .295 hitter that hits a homer every 18.3 at bats. In the second half, that is. LaRoche is notorious for his poor first-half performances (career .252 hitter and homer every 24.8 at bats before the All-Star break) and his (relative) strong performances (noted earlier) after the break.
As we noted above, first base is exceptionally deep. Players outside our top 20, such as Gaby Sanchez (Florida), Ike Davis (Mets), Mitch Moreland (Texas) and Brandon Belt (San Francisco) as a few examples, of players with upside that are viable fantasy options.
Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Jacoby Ellsbury to return Saturday
Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to return to the Red Sox lineup on Saturday night against the Phillies, according to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe.
Ellsbury hasn't played since April 11th when he fractured four ribs in a collision with Adrian Beltre.
“He gives us a different element,’’ [Red Sox manager Terry] Francona said. “It gives us that game-changing speed. It gives us the same headaches we have when we have to face guys like Carl Crawford. He gives us a certain look when he’s in there that we don’t have when he’s not in there.’’
Although Ellsbury will be out of the lineup tonight, he doesn't expect some lingering pain in his ribs to cause him to miss any games.
“I still feel it right now,’’ Ellsbury said. “It’s going to be one of those things, it’s going to be there for a little while.’’
Ellsbury, who has only played six games this year, led the majors in steals (70) in 2010.
Ellsbury hasn't played since April 11th when he fractured four ribs in a collision with Adrian Beltre.
“He gives us a different element,’’ [Red Sox manager Terry] Francona said. “It gives us that game-changing speed. It gives us the same headaches we have when we have to face guys like Carl Crawford. He gives us a certain look when he’s in there that we don’t have when he’s not in there.’’
Although Ellsbury will be out of the lineup tonight, he doesn't expect some lingering pain in his ribs to cause him to miss any games.
“I still feel it right now,’’ Ellsbury said. “It’s going to be one of those things, it’s going to be there for a little while.’’
Ellsbury, who has only played six games this year, led the majors in steals (70) in 2010.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Beckett's next start pushed back to Friday
Instead of pitching on Wednesday against the Blue Jays, Red Sox starter Josh Beckett will take the mound on Friday against the Tigers, according to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe.
Tim Wakefield will pitch tomorrow.
Beckett, who was taking batting practice, suffered some back spasms and will get his back checked out.
“We’ll get him checked out in the morning,’’ [manager Terry] Francona said. “He had a stiff back the other day a little bit, and he was kind of starting to swing the bat and he felt it and it grabbed him a little bit. We’ll get him checked out.’’
On the season, Beckett has an ERA of 7.46, a WHIP of 1.66 and opposing batters are hitting .311 against him. He's allowed five (or more) earned runs in four of his seven starts.
Tim Wakefield will pitch tomorrow.
Beckett, who was taking batting practice, suffered some back spasms and will get his back checked out.
“We’ll get him checked out in the morning,’’ [manager Terry] Francona said. “He had a stiff back the other day a little bit, and he was kind of starting to swing the bat and he felt it and it grabbed him a little bit. We’ll get him checked out.’’
On the season, Beckett has an ERA of 7.46, a WHIP of 1.66 and opposing batters are hitting .311 against him. He's allowed five (or more) earned runs in four of his seven starts.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Sox claim Billy Wagner off waivers
The Red Sox have claimed Billy Wagner off waivers. Now the Sox have until 1 p.m. on Tuesday to work out a deal with the Mets, per John Tomase of the Boston Herald.
If the Mets and Red Sox don't work out a trade, the Mets could do a salary dump and let the Red Sox have Wagner. If that happens, the Red Sox would owe Wagner $2.6 million for this year and have an $8 million option for next year with a $1 million buyout.
If the Mets pull Wagner off waivers, they won't be able to trade him this year.
As Tomase points out, Wagner would likely be a Type A free agent, which means the Mets would be compensated with two first-round draft picks. That makes it unlikely that the Mets let the Red Sox have him without getting something in return.
According to Peter Botte of the NY Daily News, Wagner said Friday about the possibility of pitching for Boston: "That's news to me, buddy. You know what, I haven't heard anything, so I can't speculate anything."
And he's available to pitch tonight (game's currently in 8th inning) according to manager Jerry Manuel: “As far as I know, I haven’t gotten anything to say to not pitch him and today is his scheduled day for work, so if that opportunity presents itself, unless I get something different, I will definitely put him in the game.”
Wagner, who had Tommy John surgery last September, pitched a perfect, two-strikeout eighth inning against the Braves on Thursday. And he hit 96 mph on the radar gun.
If the Mets and Red Sox don't work out a trade, the Mets could do a salary dump and let the Red Sox have Wagner. If that happens, the Red Sox would owe Wagner $2.6 million for this year and have an $8 million option for next year with a $1 million buyout.
If the Mets pull Wagner off waivers, they won't be able to trade him this year.
As Tomase points out, Wagner would likely be a Type A free agent, which means the Mets would be compensated with two first-round draft picks. That makes it unlikely that the Mets let the Red Sox have him without getting something in return.
According to Peter Botte of the NY Daily News, Wagner said Friday about the possibility of pitching for Boston: "That's news to me, buddy. You know what, I haven't heard anything, so I can't speculate anything."
And he's available to pitch tonight (game's currently in 8th inning) according to manager Jerry Manuel: “As far as I know, I haven’t gotten anything to say to not pitch him and today is his scheduled day for work, so if that opportunity presents itself, unless I get something different, I will definitely put him in the game.”
Wagner, who had Tommy John surgery last September, pitched a perfect, two-strikeout eighth inning against the Braves on Thursday. And he hit 96 mph on the radar gun.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Big Fraud and Manny? Busted...
What do David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez share in common with Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa?
They appear on the list of roughly 100 players that tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, according to Michael S. Schmidt of The New York Times.
Ramirez and Ortiz were two key components of Boston's World Series teams (2004 and 2007). Ramirez was named MVP of the 2004 World Series.
In 2003, Major League Baseball performed survey testing, which was supposed to be confidential and not subject to penalties. However, names have been leaked roughly every month or two.
While it would make more sense to release all the names and put this behind us, I can't see the MLB Players Association going for that.
Back in 2003, David "Big Fraud" Ortiz set career highs in home runs (31) and runs batted in (101) and continued to improve on those numbers for four straight years as noted by Schmidt.
Big Fraud's comments earlier in the year make this report that much funnier -- especially as a Yankees fan that's annoyed by the holier-than-thou attitude of Red Sox fans.
"I think you clean up the game by the testing," Ortiz said in February at Red Sox camp in Fort Myers, Fla. "I test you, you test positive, you're going to be out. Period.
"If I test positive by using any kind of banned substance, I'm going to disrespect my family, the game, the fans and everybody," Ortiz said. "And I don't want to be put in that situation. So what I will do, I won't use it. I'm pretty sure everybody is on the same page."
So then, Big Fraud, as you say, you have disrespected your family, the game, the fans and everybody.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Wakefield to DL, Buchholz to start Wednesday
The Boston Red Sox have placed All-Star Tim Wakefield on the 15-day disabled list with a lower back strain.
To replace Wakefield on the roster and in the rotation, the Red Sox have recalled Clay Buchholz from Pawtucket
“Any day in the big leagues is a better day than in the minor leagues,’’ Buchholz said. “I’m happy to be here. I’ll go after them and see what happens.’’
"He pitched good the other day,’’ Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “As an organization, I think we’re pretty fortunate that something like this can happen and we can have a guy like Clay ready to pitch.’’
Buchholz, who went 2-9 with an ERA of 6.75 last year, will get the ball tomorrow night against the Texas Rangers and Vicente Padilla.
Wakefield will be eligible to come off the DL on August 2nd, which means Buchholz will get at least two starts.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Josh Beckett won't appeal reduced suspension of five games
Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett, who appealed his six-game suspension by MLB, had his suspension reduced to five games and he won't appeal.
Beckett will make his next start on Saturday against the Yankees.
"I don't support this at all. If it was up to me, we would have gone through this whole process. It could have eventually been a lot worse if we had gone through with the whole thing. Everybody has got to answer to somebody. When your boss tells you to do something, you do what's best for the team."Although Beckett won't appeal, he doesn't agree with the suspension and says "I don't think I deserve even one game."
Beckett will make his next start on Saturday against the Yankees.
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