Sunday, March 28, 2010

Ian Kinsler could miss first four days of season, or not

One of the big knocks on Rangers' second baseman Ian Kinsler is his ability (or, lack thereof) to stay healthy. (The other major knock is his relatively low batting average as he's a career .253 hitter.)

After all, he's averaged only 129 games per season in his four-year Major League career.

Now Kinsler, who's ankle is feeling better, said he was "95 percent certain" that he'd be ready for Opening Day on April 5th, per Anthony Andro of the Dallas Morning News.

Otherwise, he could end up on the disabled list making him eligible to return on April 11th.

"If I miss four days, it's a lot better to miss four days than to miss 15," Kinsler said, per the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It's always fun to be part of Opening Day; you've got the huge flags and the planes, and the stadium is packed."

Although there are several players who have the ability to put up 30-30 seasons, such as Matt Kemp (Dodgers) and Hanley Ramirez (Marlins), only one player had a 30-30 season in 2009.

That was Ian Kinsler, who played a career-high 144 games.

Kinsler is the consensus second player at second base drafted in fantasy baseball behind Philadelphia's Chase Utley and will cost you a second-round pick.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Another strong spring outing for Carmona

Cleveland Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona has now lowered his spring ERA to 0.45 after he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks today.

In the past three seasons, Carmona's numbers have deteriorated each year.

That said, Carmona won 19 games in 2007 and finished the season with an ERA of 3.06.

According to MockDraftCentral.com, Carmona is not in the top 108 starting pitchers off the board as far as average draft position (ADP) is concerned.

Considering his low (or non-existent) ADP, Carmona has certainly become viable as a late-round sleeper with a good chance to bounce back in 2010.

Lincecum has cut on index finger

San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum has a small cut on his right index finger, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.

While the cut may cause Lincecum to miss his final start of the spring on Wednesday, he should be ready for Opening Day.

If he does pitch on Wednesday, however, he's likely to pitch against minor leaguers as manager Bruce Bochy "hides" him from the Dodgers, their Cactus League opponent on Wednesday.

"A lot of teams decide to go that route," Bochy said. "It's easier for him to [work on things] down there."

His one-run, four-inning start yesterday lowered his ERA this spring to 6.94. Lincecum has walked ten batters and has allowed 18 hits in 11 2/3 innings.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Soriano to bounce back? Yeah, right!

Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano, who has five years and $90 million left on his contract, expects to have a big season in 2010.

That makes one of us.

''Maybe if I stayed healthy and put up the numbers I did to get the contract, people wouldn't talk about it,'' Soriano said, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. ''But it's not that I can't do it because I lost my talent. It's my injuries. The last three years, if I [was] 100 percent, I know I could put up some numbers [to show] why I got the contract.''

Soriano blames his knee for his (lack of) production in 2009. In 117 games, he hit .241 with 20 home runs, 55 runs batted in and nine stolen bases.

Out of seasons in which Soriano had 450+ at bats, those were all career-lows with the exception of home runs. He hit 18 home runs in 2001.

''If I play at 100 percent and I don't put up the numbers, then I have to worry about it. But I know whatever happened last year is because of the problem with my knee. My emotions are good because the talent is there. That's the key to everything.''

In fantasy baseball (or fantasy sports, in general), "the key to everything" is drafting players that are values based on where they are being drafted. Currently, Soriano is being drafted with the 79th overall pick as the 24th outfielder drafted, according to MockDraftCentral.com.

Instead of overpaying for Soriano, let others overpay for his services.

Jose Reyes might be ready for Opening Day

He's back. Sort of. But I'm still staying away.

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes has been cleared to resume baseball activities and is expected to return to Tradition Field tomorrow, according to John Harper of the NY Daily News.

I can’t tell you if he’s going to be ready for Opening Day,” Mets general manager Omar Minaya said. “I can’t tell you that he is or that he’s not. But the reality is, we’re happy to get him back. I know for us and for all the players, everybody was excited. He’s excited. Let’s get him back here. Let’s get that smile back on our team.”

Last year, Reyes played only 36 games due to hamstring issues. He hit only .279 with two home runs and 15 runs batted in while stealing 11 bases.

In the four seasons before 2009, Reyes averaged 113 runs, 13.5 home runs, 66 RBI and 64.5 stolen bases per season while hitting .287.

With the exception of batting average, I would be highly surprised if he exceeds his average on any of the other four statistical categories in 2010.

In most fantasy baseball drafts, he's the fourth shortstop drafted behind Florida's Hanley Ramirez, Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki and Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins. So, although his thyroid level seems to be back to "normal," if you want him on your fantasy team, you can have him.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Joe Nathan to miss 2010 season

As expected, Twins closer Joe Nathan will miss the entire 2010 season and have Tommy John surgery in hopes of being back and ready for the 2011 season.

"It didn't go like we hoped," Nathan said [after playing catch today]. "We knew it was a longshot, but I think this will clear my head. There definitely was no gray area. It was definitely on the dark side. We know now that we're going to need to go in and have some surgery done and get this thing taken care of."

Based on the current pitchers on the roster, Jon Rauch is the most likely replacement for Nathan. Rauch has 26 career saves, of which 17 came with the Washington Nationals in 2008.

"He's got all the closing stuff: punchout pitches, the whole package," [manager Ron] Gardenhire said [of Rauch]. "Whether he wants to do that or not or whether it's the right thing to do remains to be seen."

In addition to Rauch and other internal candidates, such as Matt Guerrier and Pat Neshek, the Twins could make a move for San Diego closer Heath Bell.

If so, that would likely move Luke Gregerson into the closer's role and obviously increase his fantasy value.

After the All-Star break, Gregerson had an ERA of 3.13, WHIP of 1.10 and struck out 53 batters in 37.1 innings.

Mauer to be a Twin until (at least) 2018

Perhaps he could have earned more elsewhere.

Regardless of whether or not that's the case, Joe Mauer, a St. Paul native, will be the Minnesota Twins catcher through the 2018 season.

Mauer and the Twins agreed to an eight-year extension that will pay him $184 million and includes a no-trade clause, per ESPN. This would have been the final season of his four-year contract.

According to MLB.com, a press conference will be held at 6 p.m. central time on Monday to officially announce the deal.

Had Mauer tested the free-agency market in the fall, ESPN's Buster Olney believes that he could have commanded in the range of $250 million.

Despite being only 26 years old, Mauer is the American League's reigning MVP, has won three batting titles and two Gold Gloves.

In fantasy baseball, he's the consensus first catcher drafted and is a borderline first-round pick with an average draft position (ADP) of 12.71, according to MockDraftCentral.com.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Wood out, Perez in (at least, for now)

When we did our Fantasy Baseball Weekly podcast focusing on relief pitchers (and catchers) last month, I mentioned that one of the set-up guys that I liked was Cleveland's Chris Perez for a couple of reasons.

With the possibility of the Indians being out of contention mid-season and with Wood in the last year of his contract, the Tribe could have easily unloaded Wood and his contract. In addition, there was the possibility that he would lose the job due to lack of performance or good health.

So, for the next six-to-eight weeks, it's the latter (lack of good health) that will create the opportunity for Perez.

Per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Wood has suffered a strained latissimus dorsi that will keep him out for up to eight weeks and put him on the disabled list for the 13th time in his career.

Lonnie Soloff, the Indians' head trainer, said, "If there is one positive, it's not his elbow or shoulder where he's experienced surgical issues in the past."

After the All-Star break last season, Wood converted eight of ten save opportunities, had an ERA of 2.96 and struck out 30 batters in 24 1/3 innings.

"[Wood's absence] won't be such a long time," [Indians GM Mark] Shapiro said, "and we feel Chris can handle the job in the interim. It will be an opportunity for him."

"It's a good audtion," Perez said. "It's a good way for the new coaching staff to get a look at me. I hope I take the ball and run with it and get off to a good start and help this team get off to a good start. I think that's one of the easiest ways to ruin a season right off the bat is to have the bullpen blow games."

Perez, who is only 24 years old, finished 2009 strong with an ERA of 3.10, a WHIP of 1.00 and batting average against of .184 after the All-Star break.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Alex Gordon out up to four weeks

Per Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, Royals third baseman Alex Gordon will miss the next 3-4 weeks after breaking his thumb yesterday.

I’m pretty tired today,” Gordon said. “I didn’t get much sleep. Coming off the injury and now having this … sucks.”

Gordon broke the thumb sliding head-first in an attempt to steal second base and manager Trey Hillman said, “It’s a well-documented fact that more injuries on the basepaths happen from sliding head-first than any other way.”

The injury to Gordon will get some additional at-bats for Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields.

“He’s a natural third baseman,” Hillman said (of Fields). “It really ups the ante of (Callaspo and Fields) getting the majority of the reps at third base. And Josh, we’ll take a look at him at first base. We’ll see where it goes.”

Gordon, who was the second overall pick in 2005, hasn't even begun to live up to the hype. But several sites have dubbed Gordon as a sleeper pick in fantasy baseball for 2010.

After working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to retool his swing, Royals Hall of Famer George Brett said, "He stays on the right plane a little longer, has more of a weight shift. I think he's moved a little off the plate. ...He's changed his swing considerably. Hopefully it will compute when the games start."

In his young career, Gordon has a batting average of only .230 and .232 in April and May, respectively.

This setback will obviously make it tough for him to get off to a strong start.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

D'Backs, Upton agree to six-year deal

The Arizona Diamondbacks and outfielder Justin Upton have agreed to a six-year contract worth more than $50 million, per FoxSports.com.

The deal is expected to be announced Wednesday and it will keep the 22-year-old in Arizona through the 2015 season.

As Steve Gilbert of MLB.com points out, Upton's contract will be the second-largest contract in franchise history behind the $53.4 million contract they gave to Randy Johnson.

Upton, who was the top overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft, hit .300 with 26 home runs and 86 runs batted in while stealing 20 bases in 138 games in 2009.

Many expect Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds to be next. However, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted that the Diamondbacks are "not nearly as far along with Reynolds as they are with Upton" and that they "may need to go year to year."

(Note: Duncan Sanford and I will preview corner infielders on our Fantasy Baseball Weekly podcast tonight.)

In fantasy baseball drafts, Upton will be one of the top five outfielders drafted along with guys like Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and Matt Holliday. In keeper leagues, he should be one of the top three outfielders drafted along with Braun and Kemp.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Cashman: Cano "could have a Hall of Fame-type career"

Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano has had a decent start to his promising, young career.

In addition, the 27-year-old had career highs in hits (204), doubles (48) and home runs (25) while hitting .320 and driving in 85 runs last season.

Meanwhile, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman says that Cano could be a "Hall of Fame-type player," per Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News.

"He's already one of the premier guys in the game, but that's the only thing separating him from taking it to a whole other level," Cashman said [of Cano's plate discipline]. "If he can be more selective at the plate, he could have a Hall of Fame-type career."

However, isn't it a little premature for this kind of statement?

As Steve Lombardi of WasWatching.com points out, a fairly reasonable comparison can also be made between Cano's first five years and those of Jorge Orta, who made two All-Star appearances.

In fantasy baseball, Cano should be one of the top five second basemen drafted and has an average draft position of 48, per MockDraftCentral.com.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Sunday Links

The Yankees won't work C.C. Sabathia too hard before the season starts to keep him from being overworked before the season starts.

Yankees catcher Jorge Posada says of catching A.J. Burnett: "Last year I really got up when he pitched. You can't be passive back there. His stuff is so good, he's electrifying. It's a real challenge, but it's fun. It's unfortunate what happened last season, but I'm looking forward to catching him again. I really am."

Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez says that he wants "to play at least four more years."

Rangers pitcher Derek Holland suffered a mild knee sprain and may have an MRI on Monday.

Orioles manager Dave Trembley said of Nick Markakis in batting practice: "He was swinging effortlessly and hitting them in the trees out there, and you wonder, 'How the [heck] do you do that the first day? A special talent."

Rockies reliever Manny Corpas has tweaked his hamstring, but the injury doesn't appear to be serious, according to Troy Renck of Denver Post.

Blue Jays pitcher Dustin McGowan says of not having any minor-league options remaining on his contract: "I think it's a blessing in a way. Guys don't want any options. They want to get rid of them. That way if something little happens they can't get sent down or stuff like that."

Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin says of the new MLB policy restricting firearms in the clubhouse: "There are a few guys that screwed it up for everybody. If it wasn't for the NFL guy a couple years ago bringing a weapon into a nightclub ... you've just got to be smart."

It looks unlikely that the Cardinals will add a free-agent shortstop while Brendan Ryan recovers from wrist surgery.

Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto threw less this off-season in order to fresher down the stretch this season.

Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz is looking to be a leader to some of the team's younger Latin players.

A's pitcher Justin Duchscherer is battling back stiffness.

Who will bat leadoff for the Cubs: Kosuke Fukudome or Ryan Theriot?

Indians manager Manny Acta isn't revealing exactly how he'll use Russell Branyan.

Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold said of his Achilles, on which he had surgery: "It feels all right. It's going to take a little while for my legs to get underneath me, but I'll be fine."

The Chicago White Sox named Mark Buehlre as the team's opening day starter.

Ryan Franklin wants to close 2010 strong

If there's something that Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin would like to change, it would be his ability to close the season strongly, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

In September 2009, he recorded three of five blown saves on the season and had an ERA of 7.56. In order to improve his stamina down the stretch, he intends to add an additional day of weight training to his in-season workouts.

Meanwhile, manager Tony La Russa hopes that either Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs will emerge as a closing alternative, which could help keep Franklin fresh down the stretch.

"The better your club is, the more action your closer gets," La Russa said. "Therefore, the more important it is to have some kind of other guy so you don't wear your closer out. You still want to win the game and preserve your closer. That's why developing someone who can pitch in the ninth is important to this team."

Franklin made his first All-Star appearance in 2009, a season in which he finished with 38 saves and an ERA of 1.92.

Roy Oswalt says his "back's feeling good"

Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt ended last season on the disabled list (DL) due to a bulging disk in his back. But today he said that his "back's feeling good," according to Bernardo Fallas of the Houston Chronicle.

While Oswalt's ERA has moved higher in each of the past four seasons, his 2009 ERA jumped significantly to a career-high 4.12 over his 2008 ERA (3.54). Moreover, his ERA after the All-Star break (4.65) was considerably higher than it was before the break (3.85).

He had the highest flyball percentage of his career (35.6%), which led to the second-most homeruns allowed (19) of his career. In addition, Oswalt had a career low in victories (eight) resulting partly from getting a no decision in 16 games.

Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune speculates that Oswalt could be attractive to a contender by mid-season as a potential trade target. If that materializes, it could bump the number of wins for Oswalt in comparison to spending the entire 2010 season with the 'Stro's.

That said, Oswalt isn't setting any goals in reference to ERA, wins, etc. for 2010. Instead he's more concerned with durability.

“It's what I preach to the young guys: 200 innings should be your goal. Win-loss record, you can't really predict that.”

Oswalt hopes that beginning to pitch later in the year due to no World Baseball Classic and a change to his off-season conditioning program will help him stay healthy in 2010.

“I started throwing a little later this year,” Oswalt said . “I don't have to worry about getting some guys out from Japan and Korea.”

In fantasy drafts, Oswalt's average draft position (ADP) is currently 161.7 (14th round) in Yahoo! leagues. That ADP would be a bargain for a healthy Oswalt, who's a good candidate to bounce back after a career-worst year.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Webb throws first bullpen session since surgery

For the first time since surgery in August, Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Webb threw off the mound on Tuesday.

Webb said, "I felt good this morning. I'm right where I expected to be. Having not been on the mound in a year, I am pleased with how I felt."

"He looked comfortable," [D'Backs manager A.J.] Hinch said. "This is a positive sign as we’re getting close to spring training. I thought he looked good.”

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training on the 19th, but Webb will throw another bullpen session before then.

Hinch said last month, "We're not going to arbitrarily hold him back if he's ready. But I want him to know that if he's a few days or a week behind the other pitchers, that's fine, too. I don't want that seen as a failure if that happens. We'll see how the next few weeks go and then make a determination on his schedule."

As the 37th-ranked fantasy starter in Yahoo's pre-season rankings, Webb could be a bargain if he regains (anything close to) the form he had in his last full season.

Webb, who pitched only four innings in 2009, was 22-7 with an ERA of 3.30 in 2008.